From: Mikko Kurki-Suonio <maxxon@s...>
Date: Wed, 10 May 2000 12:02:20 +0300 (EEST)
Subject: Trading, er..., whatever
A few short notes: Long term investments Finnish economy, as you may know, is/was largely based on forestry. Now, it takes quite a lot of time to grow a tree to harvestable size. Long enough to enter the "why should I waste my money planting new trees as by the time they're harvestable, I'm dead or retired anyway" factor. Thing is, it doesn't make much sense for the individual. Therefore there are basically three kinds of countries in the world: - those that still have untouched forestry resources (typically due to geographical access problems) - those that have had their forests stripped - those that have laws requiring reforestation Guess which group Finland is in... Ergo, unless required by law, interest in investments that *may* be profitable after decades is not going to be exactly rolling hot. Just calculate compound interest at, say a mere 2%, for 50 years to see what kind of Return Of Investment would be required. As for laws requiring you to invest in off-world colonies, well, governmental attention span is typically even less -- they need results before the next election, or someone else ends up taking the credit for it... Shipping people Moving people used to be cheap. They sort of took care of themselves. On land voyages they could walk and even forage for themselves. Other stuff, like horses, needed to be cared for, making it expensive to move. Space changes all that. It's a hard environment. Humans don't survive there without assistance. Compared to the "horses" of the era, tanks, it's the humans that need caring for. Consequently, shipping humans is the expensive part (as far as mechanized travel is concerned, this is already the case -- and it's bound to get worse when providing breathable atmosphere to the cargo becomes a major concern). Mass exodus into space, while a nice idea (and one that I've used myself), is frankly ludicrous. The resources would be *much* better spent finding a solution to population growth control and researching more efficient means of food production. Ofcourse, logic was never something to stop politicians from trying... Call me a cynic, but about the only kind of mass exodus into space I find reasonable is the kind presented in the story "Green hills of Venus" -- they launch all the excess population into space after convincing them Venus is a paradise world... Absurdity in backgrounds Everybody knows BattleTech, right? And now I'm talking about "classic" BTech here. They have fusion reactors, and they're fighting over water. Bzzzt! Hello! Anyone home? Take Gundam (and forget newtypes for a while). Build some O'Neill stations, okay. Move 90% of human population into said habitats. Bzzzt! Hello! Anyone home? After that, I eat newtypes for breakfast. Looks like when giant robots are involved, common sense need not apply. Nevertheless, I enjoy Gundam (some of it anyway) and used to like BTech. What's important is not "realism" per se, but (here comes the big word) *internal* *consistency* E.g. I can buy FTL. I can buy fusion reactors. But if you tell me you can only use that reactor to power a 40-foot giant robot... Actually, 7th Street Games' Mecha!/Spirit Warrior Empire is pretty much the only giant robot background I find plausible -- they have Aztec GODS powering mecha for sort of ritualistic combat. The problem is, the more holes you fill with PSB, the farther you stretch the dreaded IC, and the more likely everything is to fall apart sooner or later. Ironically, the settings that have the most initial appeal (i.e. flash), are the ones likely to have the least lasting appeal (to me anyway) due to lack of IC.