Statisics - was RE: [GZG] Re: laser classes

> On 10/24/05, B Lin <lin@rxkinetix.com> wrote:

Actually you are, you just don't think you are :-). One of
the easiest ways of calculating the probability of an event is to run the
event 1000's of times and count the number of times it occurs and then divide
by the number of times you tried. It's called a Monte Carlo simulation. It's
often (with the use of a computer) significantly simplier than calculating a
probability the old fashion way. It's not 100% accurate, but it's close
enough. So I'd say, when you're trying to calculate the probability of event
occuring, it's effectively the same thing as attempting to do the event an
infinite number of times (or some really large number) and counting the number
of times it occured (and dividing by the number of attempts).

The simulation I described, was closely related to the original problem (the
odds of rolling 19 points of damage
on 2 class-1 beams).

> The question is what is

Well that's 10 * (1/6)^9 * (2/6) * 2 ... but that's not the same
as the odds of you rolling 9 6's in a row followed by a single
4 or 5 (which is (1/6)^10 * 2) which is also not the same as
rolling 2 beam dice of damage and getting 19 pts of damage.

> Be the FT rules definition, the first 9 have to be 6's and the last

I'm starting to think you didn't actually read what I wrote.

Daryl

> --Binhan