R: gzg-d Digest V2012 #10

Hi Beth!!

how are you? appreciated your latest story and will write privately (as I
should have done way before) about family and all (hope everything is fine).

Thanks for the heads up about this book, will look for it.

Plausible? The Mexican Standoff (pun intended) is definitely highly
plausible... can't say if a president, in the 2040's would have the support to
try and remove immigrants, though.

The rest? if one accept the starting points (no Western Europe, no Russia, no
China, no US economic collapse) and the obvious cavalry arrival for the US in
the war part, then, why not?

Altaic population and Japanese are definitely blocks to reckon, have a role
presently and are either on the rise or have such wealth that will not
disappear in 30 more years... limited war, a definite military tech advantage
for the US (I think one cannot easily translate general
tech - Japan has enough of that - to military in a few years... must
build up a mind, an infrastructure, to think about successful military
innovations AND to have again a "military solution" among one's strategic
choices), a definite tech advantage as the edge in conventional military
confrontations but no solution to really control diffused, low level (armed)
opposition, so one can defeat a foreign army (disable its capacity to wage
organized war), but somebody will still have to "occupy that ridge" (either on
European front, in the story, or in Southern U.S.)

So, in a few words, I can go with it:)

Best

Enzo

----Messaggio originale----
Da: gzg-d-request@firedrake.org
Data: 15/01/2012 7.00
A: <gzg-d@firedrake.org>
Ogg: gzg-d Digest V2012 #10

G'day,

For work I recently read the book "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman. I'm
not sure I really agree with some of his logic, but the
last few chapters made for an interesting sci-fi short story read.

So I'll do a quick summary here (sorry if this counts as spoilers) and I
wouldn't mind getting your opinion on how feasible it all seems.

I won't bother going through all the economic ups and downs he
predicts, suffice it to say that by 2035-2040 US is still the worlds
major superpower, its paying migrants to come to the country to pad out a
contracting workforce that even robotics can't compensate for and the jihadist
movements are basically old history. oh and an attempt by Russia to regain
past glory failed and they're a worse basket case than ever.

So Russia's collapse leaves some wiggle room on its borders. He writes off
China as not having enough cohesion and India as hemmed in by geography and
instead proposes

1) Japan gets power by first economically allying with productive coastal
regions of China and them militarily going after the Pacific rim areas of
Russia. He goes through how they build up their military etc to prepare, but
basically the crux is 500 mile radius from Japan gets you from Shanghai to
Vladivostok so they don't need a super huge military to pull it off.

2) Turkey as a regional economic power pushes up into the Caucasus as Russia
collapse and acts as the peaceful hand in the fragmenting Arab
nations/Muslim world and even moves into the Muslim areas of the
Balkans (US and Arab world initially supports them as less objectionable, for
different reasons, than Iran or Israel and Pakistan isn't healthy enough to
step up)

3) NATO falls apart but Poland heads up a coalition of dynamic
Slavic/eastern European and Baltic states that soak up ex-Russia's
eastern boundary (i.e. Ukraine, Belarus etc), again with US support (western
Europe is in financial decline due to aging populations so don't play a big
part apparently)

4) 2030s-2040s Japan and Turkey's space presence buidls up, though is
never as large as the US's (many nations also have commercial space traffic at
this point)

5) Polish Bloc and Turkey will end up at loggerheads (US ends up more behind
the Poles)

6) US puts many of its military eggs in space based command and control
centres which coordinate the strike capabilities of hypersonic aircraft that
can reach most of the world's surface (form US bases) in less than an hour or
so

7) Americans assume no one is as good as them at tech, thinking sneaky etc and
also that all threats will come from Earth (i.e. missiles fired at satellites
or satellites vs satellites using the
kinetics that was spoken of on the sf-consim list the other day)

8) US doesn't like growing military (especially naval) power of Turkey and
Japan, who in turn feel that US is trying to crush them so everyone gets
"tense"

9) No one takes nukes seriously as an option (except as a last resort) as they
don't want the PR disaster of civilian casualties

10) Many nations build industrial/research colonies on the moon by
2040s

11) In 2050 Turkey has a "crisis" with Poland over troops in the Balkans, a
ruse to keep the US attention there (President gets the PMs together etc,
seems to talk them down, great kudos etc everyone goes home for the holidays
happy). Japan does its bulk standard quarterly military drills so no one
really pays attention. The Japanese then make a "secret" first strike by
launching rocks (with rocket motors attached) from secret part of their moon
base, initially on "random" orbits so just look like steroids so automated
systems of US "Battlestars" ignore them and even Space tech Joe Bloggs goes
"Hmmm meteors are a bit higher than normal but none headed for us so ok". On
3rd day from moon launch of these rocks they go into terminal missile burn
that redirects them at the 3 US Battlestars. This is timed for late in the
afternoon of Thanksgiving so its hard to get the Joint
Chiefs/important people together. Battelstars put up valiant self
defensive effort but overwhelmed by more rocks. U S is blind. Japanese have
also got their hypersonics airborne and hit
US airfields/land command and control. In the final hour Japan finally
tells Turkey the plan... who activate pre-made battle plans and smash
Polish facilities.

12) US did get some of their own forces airborne, and do some damage to Japan,
but not sheet loads.

13) The Japanese-Turkish coalition isn't after capitulation just
breathing space so now push for political settlement - an agreement to
all stay out of each other's way/areas of influence.

14) US actually freaked out by the attacks and begins ratcheting its
responses - first gets US geekforce to upload new control programs for
remaining "old" satellites which go and kill Japanese/Turkish
satellites; mutual raiding and destruction of moon base capabiilities by the
secrte military guys inserted in each research team; the US industrial complex
rolls into action and turns out new gen aircraft (in about 2 years) and uses
mothballed secret bases to house them (they had purposefully built these and
kept the secret since 2030s or so just in case)

15) Meanwhile Turkey kicks Polish butt, using hypersonic aircraft as artillery
and old fashioned land based invasion. US uses its remaining airforce to help
the Poles out and push the Turks back (buying time for
a US rebuild) - Turks also don't want to be too stretched as have to
keep Egypt etc under control.

16) 2051-2052 Germans agree to coalition with Turkey to defeat the
Poles (they get northeast europe in return if successful) and drag in the
French too. Britain is appalled and secretly hands its intel, airforce
resources and airbases to the US. Turks and Germans pusg througheastern Europe
again using power armoured troops (with robot minions so don't need huge
numbers of human bodies). Initially the electrical grid is defended as both
sides want ti to feed their PA. The US then reveals its last trick, which is
space based solar power beamed down to troops via microwave (i.e. to on ground
recievers) and so the Polish scorch earth the electrical grid and Turkish
advance grinds to a halt. On top of which Congressional budget blocks will
mean that a 4th battlestar was built way back when but never launched and now
it is... Japan and Turkish advances reversed (again no requirement for
unconditional surrender, though US gets space to itself).

17) Poland will prosper, eventually reforming something vaguely like NATO and
economically sucking up beleaguered western Europe. US feels
threatened and now stats to back Turkey - Poles feel betrayed.

18) Military funded space based electrical power will see that form of energy
take off as most economic as commercial industry doesn't have to pay for the
infrastructure (as was the case for the interstate and
early internet/www) and you get another US boom

19) Meanwhile by 2060s-2080s Mexico has pulled itself together and is
now the Latin economy of note, moreover through now legal migration the
Mexican cession areas of the US are largely Latino populated (they are almost
a majority there now in 2000 so this isn't too far fetched)

20) Robotics and cheap energy means the labour force is finally not needed for
real and skill displacement can't soak them all up (population problems
compounded by genetic advances in health care areas). End result US decides to
go back to limiting migration and sending home anyone on a temporary visa
regardless of residence time. Latinos (some of whom have now been in the US
for decades) and Mexico (who doesn't want waves of unemployed) get upset.
Political tensions in Mexico City and amongst Latino representatives in
Washington, small scale radicalisation in the "borderlands" sees some strikes
on federal facilities. President tries to federalise the national guard along
the Mexican border to protect federal installations. The Latino governors tell
him to go jump (and largely Latino national guard in those areas support the
governors). Radical strikes continue so Congress agrees to allow US army in
down there, Mexican army is moved to the border in response. Mexican and US
Presiden ts meet to parly with the Mexican President effectively speaking for
the Latinos in the Mexican cession areas as well as Mexico itself.

21) Change to Mexican constitution allows for diaspora to vote.

22) Mexico ramps up military forces

23) US army could probably take out the Mexican army (ok likely for sure
could) but it couldn't pacify the borderlands... the world holds its breath to
see whether the borders are formally redrawn.

Like I said interesting, but how plausible is it?

Beth

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