Population Models

G'day,

I did up some more numbers. These are still rough, but they're a bit more
polished than the last lot.

Low estimate (space travel is restricted, terraforming is a slow process,
society suffers from the aging problem and AIDS etc, though I skipped major
natural disasters, a collapse of the ecosphere due to mismanagement and a
full on population crunch as I don't think we'd have time/economies left
to turn to the stars so quickly in that case)
	  EARTH      OFFWORLD	    TOTAL
ESU    1.1 billion    7 million     1.107 billion
FSE    167 million    4.5 million   171.5 million
NAC    838 million    8 million     846 million
NSL    115 million    8.5 million   123.5 million
UN*    286 million    1.5 million   287.5 million
FCT    25 million     285,000	    25.29 million
IC     505 million    300,000	    505.3 million
IF     640 million    400,000	    640.4 million
JAP    120 million    260,000	    120.26 million
KNG    15.5 million   30,000	    15.53 million
LLAR   Nil	      425,000	    425,000
NI     Nil	      180,000	    180,000
OU     29 million     225,000	    29.23 million
PAU    195 million    304,000	    195.3 million
RH     23 million     86,000	    23.09 million
SK     Nil	      194,000	    194,000
SWISS  5.2 million    225,000	    5.43 million

TOTAL  4.06 billion   32.4 million  4.09 billion

* Read this as = a lot of the rest of humanity for now

Middle estimate (pretty middle of the road on all assumptions)
	  EARTH      OFFWORLD	    TOTAL
ESU    4.9 billion    2.1 billion   7 billion
FSE    344 million    738 million   1.08 billion
NAC    7.4 billion    2.15 billion  9.55 billion
NSL    378 million    490 million   868 million
UN*    958.5 million  250 million   1.2 billion
FCT    143.3 million  7.2 million   150.5 million
IC     717.5 million  56.7 million  774.2 million
IF     1.02 billion   25.6 million  1.05 billion
JAP    196 million    15 million    211 million
KNG    20.5 million   2.4 million   22.9 million
LLAR   Nil	      54 million    54 million
NI     Nil	      15.7 million  15.7 million
OU     40 million     20.4 million  60.4 million
PAU    602.5 million  81.4 million  683.9 million
RH     46.6 million   22.6 million  69.2 million
SK     Nil	      10.6 million  10.6 million
SWISS  11.1 million   10.9 million  22 million

TOTAL  15.8 billion   6.0 billion  22.8 billion

High estimate (you would have to be able to pack them into ships like
sardines, have fleets on constant turn around to garden planets and figure out
how to have artificial wombs or multiple births or huge support system to get
this one done)
	  EARTH      OFFWORLD	    TOTAL
ESU    9.8 billion    7 billion     16.8 billion
FSE    1.2 billion    4 billion     5.2 billion
NAC    11.05 billion  7.6 billion   18.65 billion
NSL    845 million    4 billion     4.85 billion
UN*    3 billion      875 million   3.88 billion
FCT    419 million    440 million   859 million
IC     1.6 billion    2 billion     3.6 billion
IF     2.4 billion    3 billion     5.4 billion
JAP    430 million    610 million   1.04 billion
KNG    75 million     20 million    95 million
LLAR   Nil	      348 million   348 million
NI     Nil	      60 million    60 million
OU     88 million     545 million   633 million
PAU    2.6 billion    568 million   3.17 billion
RH     295 million    275 million   570 million
SK     Nil	      54 million    54 million
SWISS  132 million    100 million   232 million

TOTAL 33.9 billion 31.5 billion 65.4 billion

As to the question about the inner systems I assumed they were split between
all of humanity, but weighted towards the larger nations which started FTL
flights early rather than later.

Cheers

G'day,

Forgot to mention that for the people I've done population calcs before, don't
sweat it that your answers don't match the middle of the range
scenario. I loaded pre-made defaults here which won't match your
specifics on immigration, terraforming, patterns of distribution etc (e.g.
Noam has NI on Earth as well as in space, as a first cut I don't).

Also feel free to mix and match the values a bit. For instance Laserlight's
view of the IF fits well with using middle of the range Earth IF population,
but for his offworld IF population its closer to the high estimate (i.e. under
his specifications the calcs give about a billion on Earth and about a billion
in space if I remember correctly). Tying very low Earth estimates
with high off-world estimates is trickier, though OK if you say that it
was a not so easily reversible ecological disaster that squished Earth and
that we had the tech to set up replacement vital industry and infrastructure
on colonised worlds and that immigration flows between these worlds rather
than from Earth.

Cheers

> Also feel free to mix and match the values a bit. For instance

I think you came up with the specs on that one. You had the Earthside
population vary from 1-2 billion; the outworld population was only
about 12 million pre-KV (not counting colonies in the Core).  But if
it's plausible to get it up higher, say to 100 million or so, that's fine with
me...

G'day,

> I think you came up with the specs on that one. You had the Earthside

Mmmm from the digging I just did then it had to do with the environments and
length of settlement on a few planets. If you're happy to have more efficient
resource use (a bit more like the larger powers though not necessarily on a
par), smaller federation wide effects of conflicts and fewer restrictions on
migration (thinking of your FTL vs STL fleets) then you could get up to 150
million without being radical in your assumptions.

Cheers