PDS vs SMs/The GZG Digest V1 #608

> Robertson, Brendan wrote:

> I think you're math is a little funny, Tom.

Yes, but so are yours :-/

> average missiles per salvo = 3.5

Except that the average PDS doesn't kill 0.8 missiles unless there's an
infinite number of missiles in the salvo.

Since there are only 1D6 missiles on target from each SM salvo, the first PDS
against a particular salvo only intercepts an average of 0.71 missiles. The
second PDS against the same salvo only intercepts on average 0.59 more
missiles, and it goes downhill fairly fast after that..

Sure, 14 PDS have a reasonable chance to stop 3 SM salvoes completely.
Don't expect them to do it every time, though - IIRC you'll still get
an average of almost one missile per salvo past defenses that heavy. Not very
painful compared to what you could expect without those PDSs of course, but
quite able to sting.

Regards,