G'day,
I can't remember the circumstances for OU going to New Caledonia so this is
off the top of my head, but...
> Why would Australia and NZ invade New Caledonia? The people enjoy
Ignoring NZ's current capabilities (for one the event is decades into the
future and things could change and two its fiction) New Caledonia may well
have just been "picked up" as Australia and co went in to "settle down"
violence arising from renewed tension between the native Melanesians and those
descended from French settlers. Everytime there's been talk of a referendum on
independence in the past the place has gone up like a fire cracker so maybe
the same holds true into the future and the Australians and NZers "step in" as
peace keepers initially.
Reasons for staying maybe that New Caledonia opted to ask to stay a part of
the OU. Alternatively (as this is a wargame) New Caledonia does have mineral
resources (cobalt, copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, nickel,
and silver) and it has a fairly decent level of fisheries exports - so
that and other marine resources could be another impetus for remaining.
Cheers
So you support the alternate timeline where Kim Beasley came into power and
remilitarised Australia to protect it's mineral wealth from hordes of
Indonesian boat people?
If you want a militaristic future maybe NZ discovers offshore oil or other
undersea minerals and so increases it's military capabilities to defend its
resources against Japanese whaling fleets and other mineral resources.
Faced with a distracted France and being subverted by militant Islamic terror
groups funded by Indonesia maybe NC asked or Australia decided it
needed to act to protect it's own interests.
Neither NZ or Australia is likely to have the capability to manufacture arms
in the next 50 years so they would need to buy them from somewhere. Historic
links suggest their gear might will be Anglican.
Could be a bit of fun alternate history....
[quoted original message omitted]
G'day,
> So you support the alternate timeline where Kim Beasley came
You don't need to bring current politics into something that happens 40+
years into the future. Australia has a long tradition of sticking its nose
into any op that's going down in the near vicinity or further. The OU being in
New Caledonia doesn't need too big an increase, so long as we're not in the
Middle East as well (which is probably still glowing from the strike in 2027).
Yeah infrastructure needs replacing now, but in the future timeline as things
go pear shaped there is nothing to say that military couldn't ramp up. We made
a tank in WW2 for example so its not completely impossible.
If the Indonesians ramped up in effectiveness then yes our resources
would be a juicy target for them to aim at - combining more cutting edge
military with sheer weight of numbers and they could give us a headache (they
are already a big threat to our northern natural marine resources).
The whole point of the timeline though is to create a backdrop for games, if
we can't laugh at how Jon spun the local interactions we don't get to giggle
at the zillionth rant about the US kowtowing to the crown
;)
> Neither NZ or Australia is likely to have the capability to
What kind of arms are you talking about? We're developing new weapons all the
time so I find that statement a bit odd.
> Could be a bit of fun alternate history....
You're not tied to Jon's and even then there is enough slop to spin it anyway
you want. Its suitably vague you can have anything from Aussies (actually any
nation) being the guys on white charges coming in as a helping hand to keep
all the bad guys with big knoves away right through to being the latest
genoicidal conquesting maniacs in human history. Go
wild! ;)
Cheers
> Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:
> Neither NZ or Australia is likely to have the capability to
Shhh! He's never heard of Winin, Nulka, Karinga, Barra, Jindalee, Karriwarra,
Ikara, Malkara, Jindivik, etc etc. Few people have. Though
> Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:
To be able to project power over a long distance over water requires
considerable military investment and a manufacturing base to do so. It is easy
to make small arms, so you could have a low tech army. It is possible to make
light armoured vehicles from civilian engineering
knowledge. It would be very hard to design an build an indigenous design for
an MBT
especially one that can compete with major power designs. It isn't likely that
the Pacific Rim could develop the military infrastructure to develop their own
designs for fighter aircraft, aircraft carriers or large naval combatants.
Even the current defence spending on frigates is based on designs from Europe
with components made under licence by local contractors.
Even China with it's much greater industrial based is believed to need 20
years to develop enough deep water naval capability to be expansionist across
the Pacific.
What is interesting is trying to imagine how you would get from the current
state of affairs to militaristic enough to invade New Caledonia and stand off
France in only 10 electoral cycles. The last thing NZ wants to do is
jeopardise its relations with the EU because where would it sell its
agricultural products to.
Once scenario that springs to mind is that large deposits of unbotanium used
to make FTL drives is discovered in the Tasman Sea. Exploitation of this
material could make both countries very rich but also very attractive to
take over. Wealthy but poorly protected makes for an attractive target.
Without the protection of the US, the ANZACs might need to get reborn to
fend off threats to the mineral wealth. The Pacific Islands would then make
useful bases for maritime surveillance reducing the need for capital ships. At
some point though someone would try to send in a naval squadron and try a bit
of gunboat diplomacy.
Could make for some interesting games
> john tailby wrote:
> It is easy to make small arms, so you could have a low tech army.
Yes, we make our own small-arms and ammunition. We learnt that lesson
when Sweden refused to supply us ammo for the 84mm Karl Gustav anti-tank
weapons we had, during the Vietnam War.
> It is possible to make light armoured vehicles from civilian
And even design your own, and sell them overseas, as we have.
> It would be very hard to design an build an indigenous design for an
The last time we did this was in the 1940s. But if Brazil, Korea, and China
can do it...
> It isn't likely that the Pacific Rim could develop the military
> Europe with components made under licence by local contractors.
Yes, many are still smarting that we didn't produce the FFL, an
indigenous design that would have been far better - but more expensive -
than our current FFG-7s.
Fighters are another matter - there we pretty much must rely on foreign
designs, though we do tend to customise them a bit. OK, a lot. Our
F-18As have range of armament on them that USN F-18Cs don't, plus
various avionics upgrades. Still the basic A engine though:(
> What is interesting is trying to imagine how you would get from the
The US?
Sorry, just joking.
I'll see if I can dig up the "Secret History of the OU" that I sent to Jon
many moons ago. From what I can recollect, the New Caledonian Fracas
was part of a not-terribly-secret-but-plausibly-deniable concerted move
to expel the nascent FSE from its Pacific Territories (which were in
open revolt). All to do with Fish farms, and the large-scale marine
agribusiness started up by ex-US multibillionaires (refugees from the US
breakup) who had funded the shallow-water sea dome farms that now
provided much of the global food supply, and incredible amounts of moolah. New
Caledonia has extensive mineral wealth BTW.
Basically the Polynesians thought being part of an Oceanic Union that
respected their culture was a better deal than being the lackeys of an
increasingly arrogant and exploitative foreign colonial office.
If you've ever been to Tahiti, you'll know that there's an undercurrent of
resentment there that is barely supressed sometimes. Or there was, last time I
was there, over 10 years ago.
Oh, and New Caledonia is going to have a referendum on independence in about
10 years. See
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/87989.stm
From 1998:
"France views New Caledonia - which contains about 30% of the world's
nickel reserves - as a strategic political and economic asset in the
region.
The accord allows the archipelago greater autonomy during a 15-20 year
transition period before a referendum on self-determination is held.
The New Caledonians will vote on independence some time between the years 2013
and 2018.
Leaders of New Caledonia's rival separatist and pro-French groups have
also signed the document, drawn up in Paris on April 21 (1998).
Party to the agreement were Jacques LaFleur, leader of the
anti-independence Rally for Caledonia in the Republic party (RPCR) and
Roch Wamytan, of the pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National
Liberation Front party (FLNKS).
The accord was also signed by the French Secretary of State for Overseas
Territories, Jean-Jack Queyranne.
New Caledonia has "crossed a new step" in its political development, said Mr
Jospin after the signing ceremony.
For the last 10 years, New Caledonia has periodically erupted in
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> john tailby <John_Tailby@xtra.co.nz> wrote:
What is interesting is trying to imagine how you would get from the current
state of affairs to militaristic enough to invade New Caledonia and stand off
France in only 10 electoral cycles. The last thing NZ wants to do is
jeopardise its relations with the EU because where would it sell its
agricultural products to. The US imports a fair portion of New Zealand apples.
Sure, we grow tons of our own, but some of the NZ varieties are pretty good.
(My day job is in agriculture, peripherally.)
Of course, that's kind of moot in game terms.
Best,
Ken
> Zoe Brain wrote:
> It is easy to make small arms, so you could have a low tech army.
Rumour has it that that particular ammo lot was instead sold to the UK, who
promptly re-sold it to a certain Commonwealth country in need of it
(without telling us about it, of course)... I can of course neither confirm
nor deny whether this rumour is true :-/
Later,
> At 7:55 PM +0200 23/8/06, Oerjan Ariander wrote:
What...rumour?
;-)
We heard nothing... Nous n'ecoutons rien
MarkS living near a Large military training establishment
G'day,
> What is interesting is trying to imagine how you would get
Who'd have though Japan could go from feudal nation to country trying to take
over half the planet in a comparable time? (Or maybe less, my modern Japanese
history is weak I'll admit).
The current crop of leaders may not be awe inspriing but if a week is a long
time in politics 40 years is like a geological epoch.
Its fiction and there are plenty of precidents, its by far not the most
outrageous leap in the timeline (though does it actually say Oz invaded, I
couldn't find it in the glimpse of the time line I had this morning?).
[quoted original message omitted]
G'day
> But now you demonstrate the effectiveness of the totalitarian regime
Still doesn't make it impossible especially over *40* years. I really think
you're missing the amount of time being considered and how much things can
change when the s$%t hits the fan.
You can't seriously be saying that Autralia's military has been static in form
for the last 40 years? We were the first in the world (to my knowledge) to use
the high speed catamarans etc and just last week they announced 2 new
battalions and a service restructure. We've been hamstrung for funds forever,
comes with such a small population, but that does not equate with can't come
up with new effective large scale materials. On top of which you only have to
be effective with what you've got not necessarily better equipped to do what
needs to be done. The look on the face of the US carrier commander when the
"We come from the land downunder" came booming in from the Aussie sub who
tagged her is priceless;)
> A visit to an Aussie supermarket is like a trip back 20 years.
Compared to where? I spend my life travelling the world and I wouldn't
say Australian supermarkets are 20 years behind anywhere - you should
visit Russia! The degree of range within any particular food type may not be
as broad as in the US (having 6 brands of marshmallow breakfast cereal isn't a
sign of technological advancement), but its as broad as
in any European/UK supermarket and its more than sufficient for the
available demand.
Cheers
[quoted original message omitted]
G'day,
> I think this comes close to answering your question. Both Austrialia
Help yes, though some stuff was done in country. I am a little bemused by this
assumption that we suddenly become self sufficient though, there is nothing
that actually says that anywhere.
> The fact that raising 2600 new troops over the next 10 ? years
Faster than that from what I've heard.
> and buying 1 more frigate are big news suggests that such changes in
Rare but not unheard of.
> Actually to NZ but then that might just be the fanatical only buy
There is some "made in Australia" stuff, but there is also stuff imported from
a bunch of places, its why we have a less than great balance of trade figures.
> I have not been to Russia but if its the same as other
Depends on whether you go to the old style or new style markets and whether
you want fruit and veg or vodka.
> Besides the date for the liberation of NC is given as 2018...
Ok where are you getting the timeline from? The only 2018 reference I see in
any of the gzg history timelines I have access to is "2018 Nicholas III
crowned Czar in St Petersburg as the Romanovs return to Russia."
Cheers
2018 coincides with the last date that the French could hold elections on
Independence in New Caledonia.
Assuming they renigged, and violence ensued......
Meanhwile, The Start of the OU?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200608/s1725895.htm
Call for Pacific ADF recruits
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is calling for the Australian
Army to recruit Pacific Islanders into its expanded force.
Prime Minister John Howard last week announced the Army would be boosted
by 2,600 recruits, or about 10 per cent.
Mr Howard says the increase is aimed at helping maintain stability in the
Pacific region and participating in other operations, such as those in
Afghanistan and Iraq.
Mr Sogavare has welcomed the boost, saying Australia is over-stretched
in the Pacific.
But he says Australia's dominance of regional peacekeeping operations, such as
those in the Solomon Islands and East Timor, could be offset by recruiting
Pacific Islanders into the Australian military.
Mr Sogavare says demands for access to Australia's labour market from Pacific
island countries could also be partly met by allowing islanders to join the
Army.
"Unfortunately, this is not the case, and it leaves no room for us on the
receiving end of Australia's military engagements to change our perceptions
about Australia for the better," he said.
...
-AFP
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Gzg-l@lists.csua.berkeley.edu
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-lOn 8/27/06,
> Beth.Fulton@csiro.au <Beth.Fulton@csiro.au> wrote:
The look on the face of the US carrier commander when the "We come from
> the land downunder" came booming in from the Aussie sub who tagged her
Do you have any references on this? If the carrier C.O. was angry it means
somebody underestimated the AU forces. I like to see U.S. forces get slammed
in training scenarios when they are overconfident. Makes them think should a
real situation arrives.
The degree of range within any particular food type may
> not be as broad as in the US (having 6 brands of marshmallow breakfast
<bewildered>You mean everyone doesn't have a 30 meter isle of cereal?
How do you survive?</>
Our food choices and our T.V. addiction add up to unhealthy extreme weight
gain.
G'day,
> Do you have any references on this? If the carrier C.O. was angry it
Got family in the service, but its fairly well known. Wiki has a brief
mention (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins_class_submarine) and it
was openly discussed in the Aussie doco "Submariners" where the sub Rankin was
trying to repeat the feat but was forced to stay topside and shadowed by US
helicopters from before the exercise whistle was blown to
mark the start - the US wasn't keen on being caught again it seems so
stacked the deck.... we can only hope any future enemy will be as compliant as
the Aussies playing enemy...
The Aussies still got away in the end and tagged a US warship, I'm pretty sure
it was their official target the USN destroyer O'Kane, though the captain was
dying for a shot at the carrier too;)
> I like to see U.S. forces get slammed in training scenarios
I hope so, because there are plenty of cases when the Aussies have been
playing enemy and the US has called for a do-over as we were supposedly
not playing fair (like attacking as amphibious assaults landed,
attacking at night, attacking from the flank, using tanks etc etc) - the
list of "do's and don't" Aussie troops playing enemy are given can be length
and amusing (one NCO I know was asked not to make scary
crocodile-like noises when patrolling near the US bases at night).
Cheers
> I hope so, because there are plenty of cases when the Aussies have
Well, of course. No one would want to go up against Aussies who were operating
at their full potential.
Well, of course. No one would want to go up against Aussies who were operating
at their full potential.
It's the beer.
> Besides the date for the liberation of NC is given as 2018...
I got the 2018 date from the timeline at the back of the FT rule book second
edition. It's in the same section as the return of the Romanovs, just a
separate paragraph.
I'd be interested if someone would put together some proposals about the
TO&E for an invasion of a Pacific Island. We could then do a gap analysis
between current capabilities and the mission requirements. Be interesting to
see what% of GDP would be required.
I agree that the basic equipment could be locally manufactured, especially the
infantry fighting gear, but big items or high tech one's might be difficult to
develop locally and so would need to be purchased from other sources.
> john tailby wrote:
> I'd be interested if someone would put together some proposals about
> interesting to see what % of GDP would be required.
Ummm... it's called a Rapid Intervention Brigade or some such.
I did a logistical analysis of what transportation requirements there were for
it as part of the TAIL project a few years ago. How many
Herc/C-17 flights, how many choppers to be carried on them, refueling,
ferry ranges from nearby airfields, that kind of stuff.
Of course we had to stress the civilian aspects in public.
See Paper 56 at
http://www.consec.com.au/simtect2004/abstracts.html?confid=STT2004
Look, an LAV is nothing if not an outsized vehicle load...
Of course that was in a previous incarnation.....
And that leads me to something completely Off-Topic, yet quite
applicable to any SF genre.
It looks like they *might* have found out what the heck happened in
May-July 2005. It takes two simultaneous mutations, both fairly common
in the general population, plus administration of a statin.
One mutation on its own produces chronic sex hormone starvation and high
LDL Cholesterol levels, as the Leydig cells cannot make use of blood
cholesterol to manufacture testosterone and oestrogen: they have to rely
on local cellular production. It also produces slight hypoplasia of the
adrenal glands - a bit bigger than normal - as they try to reduce the
deficit. It increases the chance of CNI - congenital neurological
intersex - to about the same level as you get from administration of the
drug DES during pregnancy. About 1 in 10 rather than 1 in 2500. CNI is when
you have a body that doesn't match the brain's morphology, our brains are far
more sexually dimorphic than we dreamed even 10 years ago.
OK, Guys and Gals think differently, OK? No news there.
The other mutation produces a large frame, and due to high levels of cortisol,
an inability to convert nutrition to muscle tissue, so you get
fat even on a starvation diet. The abnormal fat deposits also store virtually
all the body's production of oestrogen, because the level is so low.
Statins, especially lipitor, shut down cholesterol production at the
glands other than the liver first - so would nearly zero testosterone
and oestrogen production from the Leydig cells in the testes, though some of
both would occur from the slightly enlarged adrenals. Basically,
no more male sex hormone. This usually just causes loss of libido and erectile
dysfunction in susceptible males, usually temporary.
Statins also terminate the abnormal cortisol production from the other
mutation, so you get very rapid (lbs/day) weight loss, with a consequent
massive bolus of released oestrogen (female sex hormone). Not *much* of a
problem, usually, except because of the first mutation, the cellular
receptors which would normally be near-saturated are empty: Instant
female puberty, as if a 7 year old child had been administered huge amounts of
oestrogen, far too fast for normal hormonal effects, 10 weeks
rather than the 5 years puberty would normally take.
So a somewhat undervirilised 114kg male with a female brain becomes an 80kg
intersexed female in 10 weeks. Simple, really.
But terribly complicating to one's social life. Even though the brain now fits
the body, which cures a truly hellish psychological condition called "Gender
Dysphoria" (GD), something that causes at least 30% of sufferers to suicide.
About 1 in 10,000 guys have CNI, with consequent GD. They have female bodies.
About 1 in 2500 girls have it too, they're the ones born with male bodies. I
think objectively the guys have it worse, but as their brain cells are male,
they don't suffer as much as the girls do, it's all to do with cellular
response to various neurotransmitters. As I said, Gals and Guys differ
neurologically, right
down to the cellular level.
Oh yes, this hypothesis also explains the near-constant serum oestrodiol
levels I have despite increasingly large quantities of hormones being taken:
my cells are still nowhere near saturation point. Hence the
levels are 1/3 of what they should be for any normal person, male or
female, taking that medication. The same as before I started taking them.
Sorry to be so OT, but I find this stuff *fascinating*. For mammals, humans
are just so genetically and metabolically unstable. We mutate at the drop of a
hat, no wonder evolution has been so rapid for us in the last quarter
millennium!
For those who don't know what happened, just see
http://www.webone.com.au/~aebrain/sextuplet0.JPG
The traditional picture worth 1k words. Though the pictures don't really
do it justice, most of the changes happened in 10 weeks, the rest is
just consequent fat re-distribution.
All the best, Zoe
G'day,
> I got the 2018 date from the timeline at the back of the FT rule book
Ah-huh found it (went and dug out the book instead of relying on
electronic versions). Its interested you chose to point out that the
Aussies/NZers would find opposing France difficult but skipped over the
line "Both Britain and the USA offer military support to their antipodean
relatives. The EC backs off."
Seems Jon wasn't too confident Australia/NZ could pull it off alone
either;)
With no idea about what I'm really talking about... Given the French have 2700
troops in New Caledonia (across all their forces) and another 2400 in
Polynesian they may be able to call upon at short notice, and that 2018 is
when the final independence referendum comes around and there is a strong
desire for independence (based on previous violent unrest when the topic came
up) I'd be tempted to say we already have sufficient ground forces (assuming
we can get them back from their current deployments all over the shop) and
that our biggest weakneses would be in the delivery transports. The catamarans
can carry a lot of people, so may be an option if actually picked up in
number, but we'd need a nearby launching position.
Cheers