[OT] USA in China (was, RE:Free CalTex...)

> Jim Morrison wrote:

> I've also got to work out how the USA could go

Here is one possible scenario (possible as in highly implausibe),

1). In the next decade US multinational corporations vastly increase their
investments in the manufactoring sectors of SouthEast China/Hong Kong,
taking advantage of cheap labour and the modern capitalistic/industrial
infrastructure that has been established in the region.

2). Meanwhile China's ambitions towards Taiwan final reach fruition, c.2012
and the PRC launches an invasion. To keep the US from interfering the PRC
persuades North Korea to invade South Korea. With Taiwans less than democratic
political scene, tied in with the US investments in China, the US is reluctant
to intervene in Taiwan with the limited forces it has available and decides to
come to the ROK's aid first.

3). Taiwan, quickly in danger of being overwhelmed makes a last ditched
attempt at survival and attacks China with its few remaining theatre ballistic
nuclear missiles (Chinese special forces having secured most of Taiwans
nuclear weapons early on in the invasion), destroying Bejing and eliminating
the Politburo. The PLA responds by nuking Taipen and finishing its conquest of
the island.

4). With the party leadership in chaos, and the effects of the nuclear attack
crippling the economy, China descends into civil war as local military
commanders attempt to seize control over thier respective military districts
and squabble amongst each other. With its support from the PRC lost, and badly
outclassed anyway, ROK and US forces quickly subdue the DPRK.

5). The US multinationals, concerned for their investments in South East China
pressurise the US governemt to act, which under a UN sponsered peace keeping
banner, moves troops into South East China from North Korea and effectively
seizes the region, pacifing it.

6). Meanwhile civil war continues to wage throughout China, with the US
staging strikes into the war zone to keep the fighting away from the regions
it controls.

Implausibe granted, but then isn't most of what we do?

Regards,

I don't think this scenario is all that implausible (in policy at least). I
think that a nuclear exchange in the region would have a MAJOR destabilizing
effect on local governments and I believe the US would move to protect its
interests in the region.

> --- Matt Tope <mptope@omnihybrid.com> wrote:
<<snipped>>