[HIST] Population question.

Gday Beth, the consensus seems to be a population of around 300 million for
the OU which is a minor power. Cant wait to see what you have come up with.

Tony. twilko@ozemail.com.au

> At 12:12 04/03/99 +1000, you wrote:

G'day one and all,

The IAS is just about ready for global exposure, but before I put it forward
I've got one question. You may have hashed
this out already when I wasn't paying attention - especially
on the gzg-pedia list - but what population sizes did you
guys finally nut out for the big guys/minor nations/your own
inventions? I've run a number of simple simulations based on a range of
feasible assumptions and was just wondering what ranges you'd come up with so
I could go with the most appropriate outcome.

Cheers

Beth

> At 12:12 PM 3/4/99 +1000, you wrote:

  Geez, not this again. :-) Well, as an illustration, my  ::mumble::
Free State has a population of somewhere around fourteen million. This after
about 120 years of 3.5% annual "natural" (not including immigration) growth,
plus gradually growing immigration (129,281 immigrants in 2183). We discussed
what growth rate would be "realistic", but never really seemed to agree on a
rate that seemed appropriate. We all pretty much agreed that the colonists,
for the most part, will have very good medical tech to keep babies and old
folks alive, and with all that empty space families would probably have no
compunction about having as many kids as possible (few ZPGers on a planet with
a million residents). Also added into the mix were various flavors of exotic
biotech, artificial wombs, induced mutiple births and the like. I settled on
3.5% though to me that seemed a bit high. One of these days I'm going to do
some more in depth analysis and see what I can
come up with. Don't expect results anytime soon.  :-)
  Keep in mind that the Free State is cheerfully a third-(or even
fourth-)
rate system what claims about forty starships in its Navy (not all of which
are even warships). Their standing in local space stems from a centuries
singleminded effort to grow not only a population, but a real live functioning
economy, and the utter lack of an enemy that stands higher than second rate.
Oh, and being further out than pretty much everyone else doesn't hurt either.

> Cheers

Likewise.

> Don Greenfield wrote:

> Geez, not this again. :-) Well, as an illustration, my ::mumble::
Free
> State has a population of somewhere around fourteen million. This

On the other end of the invented nations, the Empire currently has about
360 million subjects (+/-).  I picked these numbers because they made
everything else work out right as I intended.

(snip)
> ZPGers on a planet with a million residents). Also added into the mix

Saudi Arabia right now has a 3.4% IIRC, according to CIA report page.

Beth spake thusly upon matters weighty:

Well, I have (in my mind) thought of doubling periods between 40 and 60 years
from whatever initial pop, and the longer period being chosen if there was a
lot of natality or loss due to tough conditions or disease. So, to my mind,
take the initial pop, and (in the simple answer where you don't account for
net migration and net pop increase and things like war etc), just figure how
many years it has been
around, and with a doubling period of x (35-60 years... probably in
the 50 year range), you'll get some good idea of the probable pop in
2183/5....

Just a thought. Gives a good Ballpark #.

> G'day one and all,