[GZG] The pain of dice stats

By exhaustive cases

Yielding 19:

D1: Nothing D2: 19 points

D1: 1 points D2: 18 points

D1: 2 points D2: 17 points

D1: 3 points D2: 16 points

etc.

and then back down the other side

D1: 9 points D2: 10 points

D1: 10 points D2: 9 points

D1: 11 points D2: 8 points

etc. downto

D1: 19 points D2: Nothing

That would cover all possible combinations leading to 19 points.

Then, it wouldn't be that hard to determine the possible ways to generate each
of these scores per die. Usually, there is only one way.

The sum of these chances vs. the sum of all possible outcomes on two dice will
tell you how likely things are to happen.

Using a little Excel wizardry

D1 Rslt D2 Rslt         Odds D1 Odds D2 Combined Odds D1 + D2
0       19              0.5     3.27456E-08     1.63728E-08
1       18              0.33    9.9229E-08      3.27456E-08
2       17              0.166666667     1.96473E-07     3.27456E-08
3       16              0.055   5.95374E-07     3.27456E-08
4       15              0.027777778     1.17884E-06     3.27456E-08
5       14              0.009166667     3.57225E-06     3.27456E-08
6       13              0.00462963      7.07305E-06     3.27456E-08
7       12              0.001527778     2.14335E-05     3.27456E-08
8       11              0.000771605     4.24383E-05     3.27456E-08
9       10              0.00025463      0.000128601     3.27456E-08
10      9               0.000128601     0.00025463      3.27456E-08
11      8               4.24383E-05     0.000771605     3.27456E-08
12      7               2.14335E-05     0.001527778     3.27456E-08
13      6               7.07305E-06     0.00462963      3.27456E-08
14      5               3.57225E-06     0.009166667     3.27456E-08
15      4               1.17884E-06     0.027777778     3.27456E-08
16      3               5.95374E-07     0.055   3.27456E-08
17      2               1.96473E-07     0.166666667     3.27456E-08
18      1               9.9229E-08      0.33    3.27456E-08
19      0               3.27456E-08     0.5     1.63728E-08

Total Results leading to 19 points:                     6.22166E-07

In all of these cases, once you break the two dice apart, their is precisely
one way to generate the point score with one die roll sequence. To get 1, I
need to roll 4 or 5 (ergo 0.5). To get 2, I need to roll 6. To get 3, I need
to roll 6 followed by 4 or 5, etc.

Treating each dice separately, and multiplying the probabilities of a given
outcome together should give us the total for that particular combination of
points.

Then sum these up for the total. I make this at 1 in 1607288.038, given some
rounding errors. So call it 1 in 1.6 million in round figures.

Pretty unlikely.

Can we put this bad boy to rest now?

Regardless of the math, it's a pretty freakin' unlikely circumstance and to
make rules from it seems a poor choice. (YMMV).

TomB

G'day,

> So call it 1 in 1.6 million in round figures.

Blast if it was 1 in a million then under Pratchett logic it would come off
for sure every time and even the likes of me could do it;)

Now off to tell our local Teske equivalent that he is a freak - he has
pulled off the 19 damage from a single B1 - he's record is 27 damage off
a single B1... But like I said he's a freak... And he has me to even out the
cosmic probability harmony so Tassie doesn't disappear in a rent in
probability space;)

> --- Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:

<grin>

> Now off to tell our local Teske equivalent that he is a

Kinda like how Indy and I balanced out for so long, though I'm
not sure what's happening in the Maryland/New Jersey area now
that I'm off in Shanghai. ^_-  Of course, I think the Teske
Field started wandering off a while back, when I didn't exercise it quite so
much... so there's likely not too much of a problem.
 Heck, Indy's even hit with P-torps every now and then, from
what I hear!  He even rolled higher than a '1' for damage! ^_-

Aaron

PS -- one of the shortest FT games I played was an introductory
scenario to try and get a friend into the game -- one CL each,
and we decided to use simultaneous fire. Both of us ended up getting enough
rerolls on our first salvo to destroy the other person's ship. *That* was
kinda freaky....

_______________________________________________
Gzg-l mailing list
Gzg-l@lists.csua.berkeley.edu
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-lOn 10/27/05, Aaron
> Teske <mithramuse@yahoo.com> wrote:

My "field" has manifested itself in other game systems for me. Heh.

Of course, I think the Teske
> Field started wandering off a while back, when I didn't exercise

:-P
Phththththt

Remarks like that will not get your book back to you.

Mk