[GZG] [Real World] Russian Mig 29 shoots down Georgian UAV

Excellent bit of video footage - you can very clearly see the fighter
coming in and launching the missile.

Russian MiG29 shooting down a Georgian UAV from the UAV's persepctive...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7358761.stm

> Tom B wrote:

> Excellent bit of video footage - you can very clearly see the fighter

Nah, that's clearly an abchazian AA gun. At least according to the
Kremlin:-)

> Frits Kuijlman wrote:

The real question is if its doctored or not. I mean with todays modern
avionics if the Russians had really wanted to shoot it down and play
"plausible deniability" (?sp) they would have simply launched a R-27 out

at 150km not diving the unsuspecting drone operator chance to zoom in on

the MIG. Getting up close and getting filmed seems one of those
slap-in-the-face moves but if that was the case, they would own up to
it. I have my doubts on the legitimacy of the video for this reason alone.

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> ts Kuijlman wrote:
Dunno... if it can intercept a recon UAV and it's an "AA gun", I'm kinda

wondering about an ESU grav AFV -- which is worrying... ;-)

Phil

> Frits Kuijlman wrote:

Well, that's quite really a good fotage. And that's surely Russian
aircraft (MiG-29 or SU-27), or that may be Turkish F-15, cause there are
no other twin-tails in that region (but what would Turks need over
Abhasia?). And, being Russian, I can believe, that Russian airforce hits
Georgian UAV. But besides the question "What did Russian fighter do over
Abhasia?" there is another question "What did Georgian UAV do there?" Because
in fact Abhasia is not a Georgian territory. During the war in
1994-95 Abhasians withdrew Georgian army and gained practically
independance. And both sides ceased fire only after UN-troops (Russians)
stood brtween them, and they had an agreement that neither Abhasian nor
Georgian planes would not fly over each other's territories. But during last
three years Georgians are very provokative.
> _______________________________________________

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> ???? ????????? wrote:
More to the point, I don't think the Turks /have/ F-15s, so it'd have to

be a USAF Eagle or an Israeli one; whoever it belongs to, it's very,
very lost if it's operating over the Georgia-Russia border area... :-)
> And, being Russian, I can believe, that Russian airforce hits Georgian
Because in fact Abhasia is not a Georgian territory. During the war in
1994-95 Abhasians withdrew Georgian army and gained practically
independance. And both sides ceased fire only after UN-troops (Russians)
stood brtween them, and they had an agreement that neither Abhasian nor
Georgian planes would not fly over each other's territories. But during last
three years Georgians are very provokative.
> [quoted text omitted]
Funny, that's what they say about the Russians... but let's not get into

that argument. The Georgians and the Russians are doing that quite well
enough.

Phil

Two questions.

Whose airspace was it? If it wasn't Georgian they don't have any say.

Is it standard procedure for jet fighters to attack airborne targets from the
front?

Is it possible the owners of the airspace had Russian aircraft? They do

seem to pop up everywhere.

> Tom B wrote:

> Adrian1 wrote:

> Two questions.
Assuming enough time and aireal recon, one could probably ID the section

of coast that is in the footage to some degree of certanty. There's only

a small portion of coast it could be, realistically.

> Is it standard procedure for jet fighters to attack airborne targets
Okay, without knowing the exact model of UAV, just the fact it was "purchased
from Israel" and coupling that with this link:
http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/hermes_450/Hermes_45
0.html Which has multiple pictures of a UAV that seems to have had some export
success, I believe that the fighter aircraft approached low and to the
left of the UAV, probably 7-8 o'clock or so (estimated from apparent
position of cams on the UAV and the shot of the landing wheel in said footage,
including it's support strut). So I don't think the fighter was

making an attack from the rear. From his maneuvering, he probably came up from
the rear and then hooked "left" (from the orientation of the UAV's nose)
before swinging right into an attack position. Granted he did approach quite
closely, but it is also possible he wanted to eyeball

the target and confirm it was a UAV. (assumption is that it had the same

radar signal as a small civillian plane. Last thing you want to do is be

responsable for that kinda thing...)

That beign said, it seemed damn ballsy to do it. The missile might be a bit of
overkill, but assuming that they wanted it down quick and for sure, it's the
best way to do it.

> Is it possible the owners of the airspace had Russian aircraft? They
That's another good question. They're rather decent sellers IIRC to anyone
with the cash who isn't going to be pointing them right back at them...
However, it is possible that they might be able to amplify the picture and
perhaps pull some more identifiers on the aircraft. Additionally, they might
be able to do some photo analysis to identify
the specific aircraft. Granted they do look similar (varions migs, F-16)

I imagine the actual geometry is somewhat different. Given the relatively
small amount of distance from cockpit to tail rudders, they could work out
some general measurements and compare them to known geometry of the fighters
in question. If the geometry dosen't match that

of the F-16, but comes very close to the MiG-29, well....

You can easily rule out an F-16.  The twin vertical stabilizers is
clearly seen, and the F-16 only has a single vertical stabilizer.

--Greg

> On Mon, 28 Apr 2008, Sylvester Wrzesinski wrote:

> Adrian1 wrote:
http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/hermes_450/Hermes_45
0.html
> Which has multiple pictures of a UAV that seems to have had some

> sax@soundingrocket.com wrote:

> You can easily rule out an F-16. The twin vertical stabilizers is
My mis-type, then. I was referring to the F-15 that another poster had
referenced. I think that has vertical stabilizers.

Also, link presented lower is for the same UAV type as in video. Article

on BBC mentions it's the same model

> On Mon, 28 Apr 2008, Sylvester Wrzesinski wrote:

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nk I found where it was - Anaklia - on the south east coast of
Abkhazia. I would love to know what those weird shapes are just to the south
east are.

Incidentally - Google Earth is FUN.

> Sylvester Wrzesinski wrote:

> referenced. I think that has vertical stabilizers.
Article
> on BBC mentions it's the same model
http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/hermes_450/Hermes_45
0.html
> Which has multiple pictures of a UAV that seems to have had some
They do
> seem to pop up everywhere.
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I think, I can answer about those two questins
1/ Nationality of the fighter. You can dafinitely notice two vertical
stabilisers. So, there are only very several types of planes of that
kind there: American F-15 or F-14, as far as I know no one posess that
planes in that region; Russian (or ex-Soviet) MiG-25, MiG-29, MiG-31,
Su-27, Su-30, Su-34, Su-35. Su-30-35 are VERY rare planes, and MiG-31
exists in a very small numbers, so that is definitely not one of them.
MiG-29 or Su-27 can be seen there, and there are surely no those planes
in the airforce of Georgia or Abhasia, you can see only Russian "29th"
or "27th" there. As to MiG-25 -- it's relatively old interceptor, which
was also almost as expensive as F-15, so it wasn't wide-spred in Soviet
AA-force, but there were squadrons of them, based in Caucasus, and some
of them could be in Gerorgia. That's another questions, that Georgians in
1990s didn't have any good fighter engineers and repairing
facilities, so they can hardly make any of MiG-25 fly. So, for me, it
was no doubt, Russian plane.

2/ Whose airspace was it.
The answer is: Abhasian. Georgians claim Abhasia as there (Georgian)
territory. Abhasians don't think so, they want independance, and they almost
have it: there are no Georgian army, Georgian police, or Georgian law on there
territory. Now Georgians are trying to take the land back by armed hand,
Abhasians are preparing for defencive war, but Russians don't want to have any
wars next to there border, so, they do what they can to stop Georgian military
preparations by any means (let's say
shooting down Georgian recon-planes over Abhasia). What is also
important -- many Abhasians in Abhasia are citizens of Russia, and need
protection in case of Georgian invasion; Abhasia is very friendly towards
Russia, while Georgia is hostile; after Kosovo get its independance from
Serbia (in complenely the same circumstances) Russian government consider more
or less possible for them to recognise independent Abhasia and Southern Osetia
(by the way if there were a referenda in S Osetia, they would choose to
reunite with Northern Osetia, which is a part of Russia, rather than being an
independant "banana republic").

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8/4/28 Тимофей Потапенко <potapenkoteo@mail.ru>:

> [...]

I hear the sounds of a DSII or SGII scenario being worked up here.

;-)

Mk

> Sylvester Wrzesinski wrote:

> >Whose airspace was it? If it wasn't Georgian they don't have any

Abkhazian airspace... which in Georgian eyes means "Georgian" in a similar
way as many Serbs still consider Kosovar airspace "Serbian" :-/

> >Is it standard procedure for jet fighters to attack airborne targets

When the target is very small, unarmed, *very* slow-moving compared to
the jet fighter, and its heat signature is pretty much the same all around,
there's not very much difference between the various approach angles...

> Okay, without knowing the exact model of UAV,

It was a Hermes 450, yes.

> That beign said, it seemed damn ballsy to do it. The missile might be a

Small, slow-moving targets are very difficult for a fast-moving fighter
to engage with guns...

> >Is it possible the owners of the airspace had Russian aircraft?

Abkhazia has no "real" fighters, no. They do have a few trainer jets (Czech
Aero L-39s IIRC) that can be armed, but they don't look anything like
the
fighter seen in that video :-/

Photos of Hermes 450, Aero L-39 and Mig-29 (the comments are a week out
of date though):
<http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/22/01119/8324/864/500511>

FWIW the Russians are involved in Abkhazia in roles similar to NATO in
Kosovo, ie. peace-keeping and enforcing no-fly zones for the former
ruling power. Unfortunately they don't seem to have defined exactly where
those

no-fly zones are though...

Regards,

For those who consider the US not to be a possible, remember there are several
US airbases within 400 miles (the range of a good ASM) so their CAP patrols
would fly this far out.

My knowledge of "Russia" is rather old - I was taught that it was
everything (as a very rough guide) East of Poland, North of Afghanistan and
West of China. Since when was Georgia a seperate country. Wasn't Stalin
Georgian?

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> ???? ????????? wrote:
MiG-29 or Su-27 can be seen there, and there are surely no those planes
in the airforce of Georgia or Abhasia, you can see only Russian "29th"
or "27th" there. As to MiG-25 -- it's relatively old interceptor, which
was also almost as expensive as F-15, so it wasn't wide-spred in Soviet
AA-force, but there were squadrons of them, based in Caucasus, and some
of them could be in Gerorgia. That's another questions, that Georgians in
1990s didn't have any good fighter engineers and repairing
facilities, so they can hardly make any of MiG-25 fly. So, for me, it
was no doubt, Russian plane.
> [quoted text omitted]
I think we can be fairly sure that it wasn't a MiG-25 or -31 due to the
high-mounted cockpit. Since, as you say, the Su-30+ variants of the
/Flanker/ are rare (and the -34 is predominantly an attack aircraft
rather than an interceptor), that leaves the MiG-29 and Su-27. Those two

aircraft look very similar from the front and, at the range we see the
attacking aircraft, the only real way to tell the difference is by
estimating the size of the aircraft, the /Flanker/ being somewhat larger

than the /Fulcrum/ -- but, of course, that's not possible because we
don't know how far away it is. If we could get a good look at the underside,
we might be able to determine which aircraft it is from certain subtle
differences, and if we could see the rear end properly,
we'd know from the presence or absence of the /Flanker/'s characteristic

tail "sting" which type it was, but the BBC clip is too small and taken from
the wrong angle for me to tell. The accompanying story says it was
a MiG-29, so I presume that someone, somewhere, either knows what the
V-VS has stationed in that area or could get a better look at the
attacker. I'm not arguing.

> 2/ Whose airspace was it.
territory. Abhasians don't think so, they want independance, and they almost
have it: there are no Georgian army, Georgian police, or Georgian law on there
territory. Now Georgians are trying to take the land back by armed hand,
Abhasians are preparing for defencive war, but Russians don't want to have any
wars next to there border, so, they do what they can to stop Georgian military
preparations by any means (let's say
shooting down Georgian recon-planes over Abhasia). What is also
important -- many Abhasians in Abhasia are citizens of Russia, and need
protection in case of Georgian invasion; Abhasia is very friendly towards
Russia, while Georgia is hostile; after Kosovo get its independance from
Serbia (in complenely the same circumstances) Russian government consider more
or less possible for them to recognise independent Abhasia and Southern Osetia
(by the way if there were a referenda in S Osetia, they would choose to
reunite with Northern Osetia, which is a part of Russia, rather than being an
independant "banana republic").
> [quoted text omitted]
So Russia is acting in its usual role of "protector of the Slavs"?
Shades of a century ago... /plus ca change, plus ca meme chose..../

Phil

Sorry guys...It looked like a 29 to me. Twin stabilizers, fuselage flairs out
with upward facing intakes, and distinctive engines hanging slightly below the
level of the fuselage.

  Jason

> On 4/28/08, Phillip Atcliffe <atcliffe@ntlworld.com> wrote:
If we
> could get a good look at the underside, we might be able to determine
Shades
> of a century ago... plus ca change, plus ca meme chose....

You're right. Your knowledge of "Russia" is rather old. And yes, Stalin was a
Georgian.

The Republic of Georgia declared its independence in 1991.

--Greg

> On Mon, 28 Apr 2008, Adrian1 wrote:

> For those who consider the US not to be a possible, remember there are

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> ian1 wrote:
In Russian/Georgian airspace? =-O    Boy, wouldn't NATO have loved to do

/that/ during the Cold War? :-)
> My knowledge of "Russia" is rather old - I was taught that it was
Yep, he was, though he became more of a Soviet "patriot" than anything else.
And that's the point: when the USSR broke up, all the individual
"Republics" became what they in theory always were: separate nations --
ones that had "agreed" to be part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
A lot of them came together to form the Commonwealth of Independent States,
but quite a few refused to join, Georgia being one of them IIRC. Uncle Joe may
have been Georgian by birth, but many of his

countrymen jumped at the chance to get out from under Moscow, just as
the Baltic states did -- and others in bith the east and west of the old

USSR.

What ever happened to the CIS, anyway? You never hear about it any more.

Phil

> On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 3:22 PM, Adrian1 <al.ll@tiscali.co.uk> wrote:
Wasn't
> Stalin Georgian?

Since the fUSSR broke up nearly two decades ago..

Oh, and prior to that from about the beginning of recorded history until the
19th century. Georgia was a civilized country long before the Danes and Swedes
sailed down the Dnieper to start civilizing the
Slav hunter-gatherer tribes.

> Oerjan Ariander wrote:

Would an AA-11 track such a small target?  (I'm assuming it's an AA-11,
based on open source materials...)

Also, according to the tape, the missile takes about 4 seconds to travel
from the MiG to the target (assuming it's a MiG-29) -- and open
sources (Wikipedia, among others) indicates that if the launch is from the
outer rail, it's probably an Archer. Now, according to warfare.ru,
an Archer accelerates at 12g's -- now, we don't know the launching speed
of the aircraft, so I stuck in 60 m/sec, which is really slow for a
jet fighter (about 216 km/h, 120 knots, right at stall speed.)

Punch those numbers in, 4 seconds of flight time, and the shot was fired from
1.2km out.

If we assume a faster speed (e.g. 240 knots, still really slow), the range
increases to 1.5km.

So here's the question, assuming I haven't blown my basic kinematics
equation -- how big does an aircraft with a wingspan of around 11m look
at a distance of 1 km to 2 km (about a mile out)? In particular, should we be
able to even tell it's an aircraft? I don't know.

I'm also wondering about the HUD symbology, wondering if there's anything on
there that could indicate range or zoom, but, once again,
I don't have the security clearance.  (8-)

Essentially, somebody brought up the possibility that this might have been
doctored, and, I guess I'm not certain myself, as it just seems too wild
-
the camera happened to point in exactly the right direction at exactly the
right moment to catch a missile. I know you can get lucky, but... well, do
people really believe that this video is legit?

If my math is off, I apologize -- I haven't solved for 's' in a
kinematics
equation in many, many years.  (8-)

JGH

On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 3:26 PM, Phillip Atcliffe
> <atcliffe@ntlworld.com> wrote:

> So Russia is acting in its usual role of "protector of the Slavs"?
Shades
> of a century ago... plus ca change, plus ca meme chose....

And how much would the United States be involved if the Mexicans had a civil
war in Chihuahua?

Ask Blackjack Pershing...

No state with pretensions to Great Power status can tolerate this sort of
chaos on their border. The more their pretensions are pretense, the more vital
appearances become.

In actuality, the value of the roughly 83% of Abkhazia occupied by the
Russian-backed (armed, equipped, supplied, trained) separatist
movement is next to nil. Their majority industry is tourism, and most of the
tourists come from Russia. The Abkhazian population was, before the conflict,
predominately Georgian (239,000 out of 525,000 inhabitants in 1989, with
Abkhazians making up a mere 93,000), and the Georgians initially waltzed into
the capital with very little armed opposition. The "independence" of Abkhazia
was established once Russia flooded the region with paramilitaries, both
Russian and those recruited from other groups in the area. Included among
these was a force of Chechen gangsters and organized criminals led by one
Shamil
Basayev--who ended up Deputy Defense Minister in Abkhazia. . .  The
decision to give him guns, training, and combat experience later bit the
Russian government in the butt, but that's a story for a different day. After
their victory, the Russians, via their proxies, began a program of ethnic
cleansing to throw the estimated 250,000 Georgians out of the province.

Georgia has offered a settlement plan which translates into nearly complete
independence, complete with a permenantly reserved
vice-presidential position with veto authority over Abkhazia-related
decisions. This is more de facto independence than "Abkhazia" enjoys as an arm
of the Russian intelligence services (Russia has extended Russian citizenship
to nearly 80% of Abkhazia's population, issues Russian passports to them,
etc). In fact, when Russia's handpicked "Presidential" candidate (a former KGB
general) lost the election, the
threat of violence from Russian-backed paramilitaries that make up
much of the military force in Abkhazia was so severe that they nullified the
elections and held another set of elections with only
one ticket--the KGB general accepted vice-presidential billing on it.

At any rate, unless someone can tie it into a SG or DS scenario, I think we've
pretty much exhausted this topic and delved far more into
modern-day politics than is the norm for this list.

Stalin precisely was not Georgian, he was Osetian (it's a small country in
Caucasus divided between Georgia and Russia now), in more detail he was Gorian
Osetian (local clan of Southern Osetians) there are dosens of small folks and
tribes and clans in Caucasus, in many even Russian can't definitely determin
who is who, only other Caucasians can.

Russia doesen't protect Slaves in Abhasia. Because Abhasians are far not
Slavs. The main idea there is to keep borders safe and calm, and under control
from both side. Chehenia is too close, if there were war in Abhasia or Georgia
There won't be sufficient border control and Chechen rebels would get
reinforsments, money and weapons much easier.