From: Thomas Barclay <Thomas.Barclay@s...>
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2001 02:33:08 -0500
Subject: Guerilla wars (or continuance of armed conflict in other ways)
Although in general I agree with John's comments about outside support, I will point out that this is not necessarily always the case. It is quite conceivable that, knowing you have an enemy potentially about to occupy your planet, you plant plenty of arms caches around. You then distribute some of your population around the rougher regions. Bits of your fleet goes to ground on the ocean bottoms, in hidden cave silos, on your gas giant, etc. Hidden comsats are emplaced as asteroids, etc. Now, this forms the basis for a guerilla war. This presumes that 1) your enemy doesn't want to cook the planet (then there isn't much you can do) and 2) you have a finite time until you run out of rebels, arms, and support. You may have support from in-system forces that make a great effort to remain hidden. You may have a chance at pulling this off due to the difficulty of garrisoning an entire planet. If you have support from the remaining off-Earth colonies (you might call this outside support, I'd actually call it inside support since really it is part of the same force that is waging the guerilla war, rather than a separate entity), then that's a good plus. In general, it is very hard for a guerilla or revolutionary movement to work without outside funding and arms. However, there are some situations where a limited duration guerilla struggle are more than feasible (witness Alan's suggestion on how the OUDF might best oppose the KV and how OUDF training involves this as a core philosophy). This requires preparation, and an effective enemy with enough willingness to stick it out will probably overcome these strategems eventually. But in the meanwhile, it can get very costly for him. And I think if Earth was captured, if it wasn't utterly reduced, it would still be a key planet to recover (partly due to the psychological impact, partly due to the population on Earth, and partly due to the manufacturing plants, universities, etc on Earth that are worth saving). Now, if the KV have Humanicide in mind, then the UNSC better keep them the heck away from Earth. Failing that, they must write their final will and testament.... Oh, and John, in case you hadn't noticed: Modern Day Japan has an awful lot of very reasonable and democratic people who put a very high value on human life. There are undoubtedly small vestiges of the attitude of "the old days", but they are nowhere near as prevalent as one might fear. The average salary- man is concerned with family stress, work stress, and trying to make a living in a reeling economy. Manifest Destiny or Global Hegemony are well outside the common consciousness today. I'd bet there are many Japanese that place a higher value on human life (any human life, not just a Japanese one) than a lot of people elsewhere. They've had a real close acquaintance with the results of that philosophy. And besides, most kids nowadays in Japan are interested in material goodies rather than philosophy. Globalization, the ubiquity of English, the Internet, etc. are all having their effect.... Tomb