GDP/Pop conversion and Ghurkas in 2180s

Someone had come up with some idea that (based on the fleet lists), their was
a ratio of population or GDP (which is probably a function of population) to
FT points in active fleets.

Does anyone have this conversion factor, or an idea what it ought to be? I'm
interested now that I've finally started work on my Ghurka stuff for the
Reformed Ghurkas of the 2180s. Nyrath has generously gifted me with a wee
system for them, and I wanted to get an idea what type of a
self-defence fleet they might have.

I assume: 1) The fleet points are being correlated to GDP 2) GDP is a function
of pop, but with a multiplier to reflect
tech/resources/cultural benefits/etc.

That is, a low pop place with good laws supporting innovation may have a high
prosperity and high GDP, or contrariwise a high pop place with restrictive
law, poor resources, or poor business climate may have a crappy GDP. I suspect
GDP directly controls fleet sizes, so this means if you are large AND rich,
your kick @$$. If you are just large, that isn't bad, nor is being just rich.
If you are small and poor, you'll have something, but it won't be much.

So I'm figuring it'll be a small force. I have to work some pop numbers
forward from the Exodus date to give me a feel for the order of magnitude I'm
working on.

Interestingly, for those who follow those things, Ghurkas have worked for
Britain, India, Brunei, and Singapore. The original discussion suggested by
some was that they were ESU, yet Jon has them fighting for the NAC. The truth
I suspect (as I will write it, and thus of course it must be the absolute
truth <*grin*>) will be roughly as follows:

At some point, Britain (as the NAC) will decide the Nepalese are about to fall
under ESU hegemony. This will not sit well. However, it is probably
historically unavoidable. Nepal is a small, crowded, and resource depleted
country. But, the NAC with UN assistance, will provide a relatively otherwise
unpromising but habitable colony world for the Nepalese to escape to and some
very slapdash transport to get there (good intentions, crappy budget). Some of
the Nepalese will leave with a branch of their royal family.

So, we'll have some of the Nepalese still in Nepal (easing the strain on their
polluted and overcrowded land) and some on a similarly resource poor planet.
Those in Nepal will eventually fall under ESU dominion, still providing troop
formations to India and Singapore. These will be the ESU Ghurkas. Those who
left will reform formations which will be one of their main methods of
generating revenue (traditional for Nepalese to
send home money - it is their 4th highest source of income at present I
believe after tourism, industry, and trade). But these, like the NI, will not
be classical mercenaries. They will still serve with a limited number of
employers. They will serve the British Crown, the IF Sultan of
Brunei, and perhaps also with a few others (have to think about this -
maybe the UN whom they owe for helping them out of Nepal in the first place).
So, we'll have Ghurkas where we traditionally have.

However, there will be one hard and fast rule - they will not take arms
against their brethren. So IF Ghurkas will not fight NAC Ghurkas. NAC Ghurkas
will not fight ESU Indian or Singaporian Ghurkas. They will attack other troop
formations, but they will not fight each other. They still realize their
kinship and their common ancestry. And there is probably a clandestine
movement funded from their new offworld home to free Nepal from the ESU's
dominion. In the meanwhile, their troops will continue to take ESU coin and
funnel it back into Nepal to help bring the modern technologies in to help
clear up two centuries of poorly planned and environmentally unsound
industrial growth.

Anyway, this is where I'm going, and I think it creates a situation where the
British (NAC) crown still has 3 RGR and the Indian (ESU) forces still have
their units, as does the Sultan of Brunei. And it'll make for an interesting
twist to provide some to the UN. Next time someone decides to shoot at UN
Peacekeepers, like some of the Bosnian combatants, they may find the Ghurkas
suddenly show up for a visit....

I will post some of this work when it reaches a more advanced stage. I plan to
build their fleet mostly out of NAC handoffs with the occaisional other vessel
(bought surplus or acquired by battle). It won't be big, but it'll be enough
to ensure the security of their new
off-planet home. After all, who wants to tackle a world with few
resources and legendary warriors? Few, and most of them won't be around to try
twice. And woe betide any raider ship unlucky enough to be boarded by
Ghurkas.... the image of Subadhar Major Lalabadhur Gurung making a Powered
Armour Close Assault with augmented strength driving a shipmetal kukri through
enemy vacc suits is enough to make one want to be very friendly with these
quiet, polite, extremely dangerous mountain
men. ;)

Have a good holiday, fellow List-ites. Do the Aussies on the list have
to hang their stockings upside down to prevent the presents from falling out?
Does Santa use Reindeer down there or is the sleigh pulled by mutant Wallabys
(One with a Red Nose from too many Lagers)? Instead of
Elves does Santa have bio-engineered intelligent Drop Bears? <ho ho ho!>
<Runs for the cover of a Canadian Winter and his reinforced, sandbagged
Igloo....>

To all, be they in Oz, the USA, Canada, the UK, or Europe (or any other list
destination I've missed): Season's Greetings, and a Safe Holiday Season to
all!

> Someone had come up with some idea that (based on the fleet lists),

Well, you need Population x PerCapitaGDP = GDP GDP x ArmedForcesBudget% x
NavyShare x ConstructionBudget% x ShipLife

The CIA World Factbook
 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/country.html )
says approx 24 000 000 people, GDP per capita $1100, total GDP $26.2 billion.
Not, incidentally, one of the best economies to choose, so be sure to pick up
an immigration brochure at your local Alarishi Empire consulate!

Average military budget for a normal, western power not at war is
something like 4%, Russia during the Cold War was at 19%--see what
happened to their economy?--I believe Angola has gotten up to 37% at
some point, Israel around 20%, a lot of Third World countries with no
immediate threat are right around 1%--this includes Nepal.  Let's give
you 5% as an easy number, and less discouraging than 1%. You have 1310 MCr for
your armed forces.

Let's say you divide your military budget evenly between Army and
Navy--not necessarily the case, eg Alarish puts 90%+ into Navy--so
Navy gets MCr655.

I seem to recall that the US Navy splits its funds about evenly between
Construction, Operations, and Maintenance, so you have about MCr220 to
actually build with, more if you skimp a little on maintenance and training.

Assume you expect your ships to last 30 years before maintenance costs make it
cheaper to scrap them. Now you have 30years x MCr220 = MCr 6600 = 660 NPV. You
will probably want a Third World Navy with a frigate flagship, some corvettes
and fast attack boats. Or rather,
that's what you can pay for, regardless of what you want--a lesson I'm
still trying to teach my wife.

Now, somewhere in here, we need to account for: a) actual population of Gurkha
World, rather than 1999 population of Nepal. You'll have to think of some
convincing rational for moving a few million people to an out of the way
place, because frankly I can't. My rational for Alarish was the free market
economy and
Design-Your-Own-Government (TM) would attract settlers, and they used
their position on or near shipping routes to IF and PAU to develop an economy.
In the case of the IF, my supposition is the government sent out recruiting
parties when they wanted settlers, and gave the recruiters machine guns to
provide a little incentive.

b) a conversion from 1999 dollars to "current" credits. This is obviously a
major factor, since my SWAG* is that 1 Cr =~ $4, and I didn't account for it
above.

c) other sources of income, such as mercs sending home their paychecks;
foreign aid from NAC, ESU, or whoever; ships given as gifts or sold at
discount.

d) current Nepalese economy is about 81% agricultural, 16% services, which
leaves a whopping 3% for industry. Hopefully you'll do a little better on your
new colony, but in the meantime, if you don't want to invest your capital into
shipyards, please note that Weyland Corporation and Reynolds Shipbuilding both
offer quality construction with quite modest profit margins.

My initial very rough estimate was 1988 (not 1998) GDP(billions) x 100 = NPV
Fleet size. That was based on the observation that the NSL GDP was $1139
billion and their fleet looked like it might be around 120,000 NPV by the time
you added all the listed ships together and assumed there were some classes
not mentioned. If you take that route, you've got NPV 2620 to play with, which
is why I'm estimating the 4:1 credit to dollar ratio. On the other hand, you
don't have the home country's resources to draw on, just your colony, so you
are probably back to your 660NPV fleet. You may want to offer basing rights to
the NAC.

* SWAG = Scientific Wild Approximate Guess...more or less.

The Short Answer:   Do whatever you want...The numbers in the FB look
good, but they do not cover every ship in the fleets...Everything else is
aproximation and guess work...

Generally this means make it up so that it feels right...

;-)

Donald Hosford

> Thomas Barclay of the Clan Barclay wrote:

> Someone had come up with some idea that (based on the fleet lists),

Some BIG Snips below.

Concerning the Ghurkas; it may be worth considering that the Ghurka's as
"Ghurka's" have been so, predominantly due to the tradition of their service
with the British Army. I think you may find that though 'posted' to Brunei
that all the unit officers are still British. If a percentage go to the ESU
then I would be inclined to suggest that they would be Nepalese troops rather
than the traditional Ghurka as such. The traditions would likely not be
appreciated by the new 'masters' and although they may retain a fierce
reputation it would likely change from what we have come to know as Ghurka.

But that's my opinion....