> Adrian Johnson wrote:
> for London? I'm sure it wouldn't have happened that way.
It's been a while since I looked at the GZG timeline so this may be in
conflict, but how about a scenario like this:
Early next century, Quebec finally manages to secede from Canada, badly
disrupting the economies of both Canada and the newly independent
Quebec. Ill-feeling over the breakup causes both countries to raise
massive trade barriers against each other. France then makes things worse by
pressuring the EU to raise barriers against Canada in order to support the
Quebecoi(sp?).
Additionally, the breakup casts the entire Canadian union into doubt.
Relations between Quebec and the U.S. also quickly sour, with Quebec
periodically disrupting trade along the St.Lawrence Seaway over various real
and imagined slights.
The Maritime Provinces (which have already petitioned for U.S. annexation
several times, finally get their way (the U.S. wants to be able to put
pressure on Quebec from both sides, and decides the additional economic burden
will be worth it). Amid the wrangling over whose fault the continueing breakup
is, the Plains provinces follow suit, leaving a sort of rump Canada composed
of Ontario and the Northwest provinces which is no longer even geographically
contiguous.
After a few more years, Ontario, its economy battered from isolation, finally
gives in and joins the United States, leaving only BC, and the orphan NW
Territories as 'Canada'.
Tensions between the newly-enlarged U.S. and Quebec continue, now being
extended to France and the French-aligned members of the EU. Meanwhile,
regional differences in the U.S. are exacerbated by the ongoing linguistic and
cultural Balkanization of the south and southwest regions
of the U.S. The influx of former Canadians, with first-hand experience
of what too much multi-culturism can lead to, support a backlash which
reverses decades of bilingual policies. The Official Language Act
(making American-English the sole language of the land) is finally
passed. Unfortunately, this attempt at unifying policies is worse than too
late.
Thus, when the Second American Civil War rips the continent apart a few
decades later, most of what we now consider Canada was directly involved. Only
the Canadian Northwest (industrialized now thanks to the influx of Hong Kong
capital and its connections with china and Great Britain) is undamaged. The
survivors were left with driving need for a unifying cultural and political
influence to unite the shattered factions. At the same time, Great Britain
sees an opportunity to get
out from under a French and German-dominated EU.
Despite opposition from France and a Germany that sees opportunity in an
economically prostrate North America, Britain manages to shame the EU into
providing large amounts of aid to rebuild the U.S., helped at first by
Europeans who feel this will finally repay the Americans' efforts following
the Second World War. This sentiment doesn't last long once the true scale of
the necessary effort becomes apparent, but Britain perseveres, with the
vigorous members of the new generation of the Royal Family (which I have to
assume has somehow retreived its reputation in Britain already by this point)
taking an active and highly visible part.
The Mainstream Culture movement in the American Remnants fastens on the Royal
Family as the unifying symbol they have been looking for. One by one, most of
the American (and former Canadian) Remnants join the new
NAC, with only California (and Texas?) refusing. Anti-monarchical
sentiment in Texas is just too strong, and both regions have culturally
moved into the Hispanic/Central American sphere of influence anyway.
(Does anyone know what the official language in California Free State is?)
Maine and Florida also hold out for a while, but economic realities soon force
their submission.
What d'ya think?
On Thu, 10 Dec 1998 09:54:28 -0500, Jonathan Jarrard <jjarrard@ford.com>
wrote:
> It's been a while since I looked at the GZG timeline so this may be in
Remember... you asked for a critique... *S*
> Early next century, Quebec finally manages to secede from Canada, badly
It's Quebecois, but so far I can live with it...
> Additionally, the breakup casts the entire Canadian union into doubt.
This is a bit of a long shot, but probably still within acceptable limits.
> The Maritime Provinces (which have already petitioned for U.S.
The US won't need the Maritime provinces to do that, as it's already an
economic juggernaut. However, I can still see the Atlantic Provinces
eventually assimilating into the US.
> Amid the wrangling over
Okay, it's the Prairie provinces, not Plains... There are no Northwest
provinces. There are the Northwest Territories and the Yukon, and I think it's
next year that NWT splits into two new territories. However, I don't see
population densities ever getting high enough for them to be provinces.
> After a few more years, Ontario, its economy battered from isolation,
Nope, can't agree with this. Ontario actually has the strongest economy of the
country. The only two provinces that pay more in provincial taxes than they
get out of the federal government are Ontario and Alberta. Ontario is the most
likely province to manage on its own. BC is actually much worse off, and is in
the middle of a localized recession at the moment. A more likely scenario has
BC joining the western provinces, forming a trading partnership with the
northwest states. I think Ontario would be the last province to get sucked
into the US.
> Tensions between the newly-enlarged U.S. and Quebec continue, now being
Meanwhile,
> regional differences in the U.S. are exacerbated by the ongoing
Actually, most of the Canadians you've got assimilating into the US have the
LEAST amount of problems with multiculturalism. Toronto is a great example of
how multiculturalism can work. New Brunswick is the only truly bilingual
province. You'll find that the eastern provinces are actually centrist or left
of centre, and would (if allowed in as full states) shift the political
spectrum of the US more the left.
> Thus, when the Second American Civil War rips the continent apart a few
Unlikely. The second US Civil War would probalby result in the Canadian
provinces splitting away. Canadians have a radically different view of federal
versus state responsibilities. There are very few Canadians who would be
willing to fight (and die) to keep Canada together... they AREN'T about to
fight to keep the US together, a country that many would still see as a
foreign country.
A more likely scenario is that Canada splinters into four parts: Quebec,
Ontario, the Atlantic Provinces, and the Western Provinces (plus territories).
These groups have more trade north and south than east/west anyway, so
they start to forge alliances with border states (basically, an extension of
what already happens).
Western US states begin to talk openly of secession based on (insert crisis
here...; something that would foster distrust of Washington would be good
enough). This starts the NW states to think that a BC, Alberta, Saskatcehwan,
Manitoba, Oregan, Washington, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming
coallition might not be a bad thing. The provinces bring natural resources
(many from the far north) and together they form an agricultural cartel never
seen before in the world. Alaska wants in on it, and so Alberta and Alaska oil
adds to the cartel. This becomes a flashpoint for the second US Civil War.
After it's over, Ontario ends up one of the big winners (much like the US in
World War 2, Ontario has benefited from manufacturing, but escaped
devestation).
This leaves the US hurt and split up, with a new coallition of economic ties,
rather than cultural and historical ties, forming the basis of the NAC.
> Only the Canadian Northwest (industrialized now thanks to the
Unlikely... the terrain and climate isn't conducive to a large enough
population to support that kind of industrialization. Ontario is, however.
Also, forget the influx of Hong Kong capital. Mainland China isn't as scary as
it once was, and many in Hong Kong think they can do business there. The huge
influx has already happened and it won't affect Canada that radically...
> Despite opposition from France and a Germany that sees opportunity in
Unlikely. Britain is actually more likely to reject the monarchy as anything
but a figurehead... Then you've got the problems with Scottish and Welsh home
rule. This might make Britain more receptive to an economic coallition with
North America. The NAC becomes an economic union of its own... In fact, the
NAC basically becomes the North American Free Trade Zone, with Britain added.
> The Mainstream Culture movement in the American Remnants fastens on the
*LOL* Nope, can't see that happening... *S*
> One by
> What d'ya think?
> Allan Goodall wrote:
Thanks. I wasn't aware of the imminent split in the NWT.
> >After a few more years, Ontario, its economy battered from isolation,
> >Tensions between the newly-enlarged U.S. and Quebec continue, now
Meanwhile,
> >regional differences in the U.S. are exacerbated by the ongoing
I would normally agree with you. However, I posited a hostile Quebec following
the breakup, which would inflict great harm on both their economy and
Ontario's. Thus, by the time Ontario finally agrees to follow the rest of
Canada into the U.S., the inhabitants of Ontario are no longer in favor of
PROTECTED multiculturalism (as opposed to the natural kind found in Toronto).
No matter how many languages are spoken, the government and the schools need
to use just one (but that's a separate rant).
> Unlikely. Britain is actually more likely to reject the monarchy as
Oh, I agree. However, I was trying to work within the framework given to us by
the GZG, which has the British royal family playing an important part.
Frankly, I have a far easier time seeing the British
Isles drawn into a U.S. economic/cultural hegemony (though that is also
unlikely) than the other way around.
However, I like some of your other comments. I can see Ontario holding out as
an independent, though I still think it would cost them. Your comments
concerning the Northwest are probably sound, although the capital influx I was
referring to is the one that just finished. I think it will have a major
influence on that area, eventually.