[FT][SG][DS][Background] Pop Sizes

2 posts ยท Dec 15 1998 to Dec 15 1998

From: Thomas Barclay <Thomas.Barclay@s...>

Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 22:10:27 -0500

Subject: [FT][SG][DS][Background] Pop Sizes

I proposed some NAC pop sizes and no one really commented. I'm putting
together a spreadsheet to let me come up with reasonable pop figures for a
number of countries in 2183. It will allow year by year modification, and
selection of growth rate. This should let me factor in wars and other
population diebacks.

But I was wondering if anyone of the life science types out there has the
forumula for the abiotic carrying capacity of an environment... I'm interested
to see if I can figure out where population growth slows or plateaus so my
model should curb near some estimated carrying capacity rather than continue
unabated exponential growth.

If anyone does, could they mail it to me off list. When I've come up with some
numbers, if anybody is curious (probably will complete it over the hoidays but
have some early results soon), I'll post my estimates to a web page and put
the URL up here. If not, it'll just amuse me.

There seems to have been a lot of argument about what makes the major
powers.... and I can't help but think population base (tax base and potential
markets) have something to do with it, so a reasonable idea of what population
each state would have should give us an idea of what they can afford (given
the addition of a simple efficiency factor to represent high tech, high
affluence economies vs. low tech, low prosperity ones). I don't care if you
are technologically
superior - if I have 100 times your population, I should be able to
start to close that gap if I focus on that task.

Tom.
/************************************************

From: Laserlight <laserlight@q...>

Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 22:27:46 -0500

Subject: Re: [FT][SG][DS][Background] Pop Sizes

> But I was wondering if anyone of the life science types out there has

will send off list
> There seems to have been a lot of argument about what makes the major

Population & technology, I'd say. If I recall correctly, Brazil & India have
both had problems because the large population is, as it were,
multiplied by a low industrial/technological coefficient.