G'day guys,
Thought you might be interested to know that the latest round of global
population models done using cybernetic methods have predicted a major
event (read population crash or technological revolution - if you don't
get the later the former occurs being the main idea) for about 2020 to 2050
(particularly at the 2050 end of things). Jon's either clairvoyant, one of the
cutting edge population modelers or has a damn fertile imagination...;)
Cheers
Beth
Are you refering to St Jon's marvelous FT timeline?
When I asked him a while back (in a private email), about how he did it and
why...
He told me that a friend of his (whom I can't remember the name of...) created
the timeline (I think he said his friend tossed it togather). Jon thought it
sounded good, and pasted it into the game.
I had wanted to question his friend about a few points...history being one of
my interests...and he said that his friend wasn't on the web. (At that
time...I
have no idea if that has changed...) That kind of killed that...
Anyway, this was a couple of years and a few email crashes ago...so I don't
have
the emails anymore...:-(
Donald Hosford (Ask St.Jon about it...)
> Beth Fulton wrote:
> G'day guys,
Wow, great tech-speak, Beth. <grin>
Let's see if my Evil, Lucite [nay border line traditionalist] Cartographically
bent mind got this straight. If trends keep going and there is no significant
social, technological or moral break through
[none of which is assured or even likely] The world might suffer a major
wide spread collapse. Stock market crash? (Oops did that in 1929) World War?
(Hmm did that starting in the mid 1930's through the mid 1940's) Famine? (did
that) Plague? (Depending on AIDS and what level of death and what size an area
you define seems to be pretty constantly happening)
Maybe Jon should have bought a lottery ticket instead of publishing
FT???
[This from a man who doesn't gamble - well, with money anyway; but this
is Science Fiction not a fantasy list... 8^)
Gracias, Glenn/Triphibious
You don't have to be French to be a 'frog', or even human!
Nektons - Real Marines!
Starguard, Dirtside 2, Ratner's Space Marines, Stellar Conflicts
and Uprisings, and Full Thrust/2nd. Resistance is everything!
On Wed, 31 Jan 2001 16:40:27 +1100 Beth Fulton
> <beth.fulton@marine.csiro.au> writes:
> Donald Hosford wrote:
created
> the timeline (I think he said his friend tossed it togather). Jon
That'll be Steve Blease. Check the credits in sundry GZG games.
> I had wanted to question his friend about a few points...history being
Blease posts infrequently to rec.games.miniatures.misc and
rec.games.miniatures.historical. Try searching deja.com with his
name to see if it will spit out an e-mail address.
> Are you refering to St Jon's marvelous FT timeline?
created
> the timeline (I think he said his friend tossed it togather). Jon
I can't remember the exact exchange of emails, Don, but this isn't quite
right. What happened is that I originally wrote up the major events of the
timeline, including the development of FTL., the breakdown of the USA and
formation of the NAC, the Chinese incursion into the ex-Soviet republics
and the formation of the ESU etc.; Steve Blease (who is credited with
co-development of the timeline in the FT credits) then fleshed out the
basics that I'd come up with, adding much of the colour and details. The
subsequent extensions of the timeline in MT, FB2 etc. are mostly down to me,
though a lot of the more detailed bits used in SGII were Steve's.
Then we'll have to see where we're going post-FB2...... ;-)
Jon (GZG)
PS: As I've said several times, the timeline is really only there to give you
all a valid excuse to put almost any force up against any other on the
tabletop!
As an aside, for anyone interested in ideas for near-future political
and military background, there's a new(ish) book around by Simon Pearson
called
"Total War 2006" - out in paperback from Coronet. I've just borrowed a
friend's copy, and though I haven't read it fully yet a quick skim indicates
that there may well be some rather interesting ideas in it....
> [quoted text omitted]
[snip]
> Donald Hosford
G'day Glenn,
> Wow, great tech-speak, Beth. <grin>
In my own fields I can tech-speak with the best of them Glenn, its just
all acronyms military that mystify me;)
> If trends keep going and
Yep.
> Stock market crash? (Oops did that in 1929)
Not dire enough.
> World War? (Hmm did that starting
If of the scale of that one, probably still not dire enough.
> Famine? (did that)
Repeatedly, but have even less chance these days of surviving a really major
one due to a catastrophic ecological event. I don't know if any of
the other Aussies or the UK bods on the list have seen the documentary series
based around a volcanic eruption that helped spark the start of the Dark Ages,
but in geological terms and time it was a small hiccup and we're due for some
rather major ones (within the next 1000 to 10000 years or so, no real need to
sell off all your worldly possessions in a hurry or anything).
> Plague? (Depending on AIDS and what level
We're thinking something more on the scale of the REALLY big plagues and
famines of the past (i.e. not restricted to localised effects but will impact
upon very large% of the human population). Our recent history (particularly
the last 100 years) have actually been incredibly mild with regard to serious
epidemics, famines, weather events (I know they say "hottest day on record"
etc, but the records aren't that long!), geological events etc etc. So it can
be a bit hard to accept that the wars and stuff we have seen in the past 100
years are child's play to the kind of major
upheaval we can see - or at least the kind we can create in models ;)
Just to brighten your day
Beth
On Wed, 31 Jan 2001 17:37:39 -0800 "Laserlight" <laserlight@quixnet.net>
writes:
> From: Glenn M Wilson <triphibious@juno.com>
Sooner possible, Later desirable, Never preferable.
On Thu, 01 Feb 2001 10:32:31 +1100 Beth Fulton
> <beth.fulton@marine.csiro.au> writes:
<snip>
> We're thinking something more on the scale of the REALLY big plagues
Beth, I work for the DOD/Intelligence community. This kind of talk is
considered either 'optimist' or 'middle of the road' stuff. Saint John of
Revelation (Apocalypse) fame would feel right at home with some of my
co-workers.
But, we've been wrong (sorry, events deviated from expectations) before.
And when you give a best case, worst case, and 'in-between' case it's
hard to miss it completely - but we do sometimes. Okay, more then
sometimes.
Fortunately I am just a Regional Analyst - a 'beneath notice' level of
the 'community' (gag!) that I did not want ever to be a member of. We got drug
in screaming when NIMA (we were DMA before merger) was 'hatched'. I have a
boring job but it pays well. At least I am no
longer a 'cartographer' - something the 'real' Intelligence guys
consider to be 'drawers of pretty pictures very much inferior to an image'
level
[but candidates for buy outs!!!]
From: Glenn M Wilson <triphibious@juno.com>
> Wow, great tech-speak, Beth. <grin>
1914-1945. Also 1787-1815 (Napoleonics), the earlier part of the
1700's (Austrian or Spanish Succession? don't recall without looking
it up), and 1618-1648 (Thirty Years War). All in all, that part of
the century doesn't seem like a good time to go into harm's way.
Did I mention that, according to military white papers published by the
PRChina, they expect a war with the US "in the next few years"? I recall 2008
being mentioned.
On Wed, 31 Jan 2001 17:37:39 -0800, "Laserlight"
<laserlight@quixnet.net> wrote:
> 1914-1945. Also 1787-1815 (Napoleonics), the earlier part of the
Don't forget the mid 1700s. The war Americans are taught as "The French and
Indian War" is taught in the rest of the world as the Seven Years War in North
America. It's an interesting war for several reasons. The North American
campaign was seen as a minor sideshow at the time. And yet it's seen by
Americans as the first war where a nascent sense of nationality came to the
fore even though Americans fought as British subjects (in this way, it is to
the US what the War of 1812 is to Canada). For Canadians, it's the war that
gave New France to Britain and forged the "Two Solitudes" that became Canada.
But at the time, it was a world war that altered the balance of power in
Europe.
I said:
> >Did I mention that, according to military white papers published by
I
> >recall 2008 being mentioned.
Glenn said:
> Sooner possible, Later desirable, Never preferable.
Obviously "never preferable" doesn't cover everyone--it happens. I
recall there was a study by, I believe, a Swedish institution, that said that
in the last 5000 years there were only 68 years with no documented wars.
( My response was "I wonder what happened to the records for those 68
years?")
> David Brewer wrote:
Try
http://www.blease.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/WG.homepage.html
which is the website of Steve's company, Wessex Games
I thought it was private...maybe it is in the archives...sorry man.
...a couple of years, and several email/computer crashes can play tricks
on my memory.
I can't yet claim to be perfect...;-)
Donald Hosford
> Ground Zero Games wrote:
> >Are you refering to St Jon's marvelous FT timeline?
The
> subsequent extensions of the timeline in MT, FB2 etc. are mostly down