[FH] IFed politics and history, was Re: [SG] Artillery

> --- Laserlight <laserlight@quixnet.net> wrote:

> John said:

Large and divided. How many gains do you make in Iraq just by promising local
autonomy for the Southern Shi'ites and the Kurds? If you effectively support
an independant Baluchistan, then you've kicked off a revolt in southern Iran
which is going to tie down more than a few of their troops.

> in particular

You mean Iran. However, the main way that I'm positing a Saudi ascendant
involves a huge 'meeting of
the (tiny, inbred, drooling-rabid) minds' between
Wahabbi and Shi'ite clerics that also inspires an
anti-Baghdad uprising in southern Iraq.  The Saeed are
the offshoots of those Shi'ite who aren't too happy with the compromise. Oh,
and having "We destroyed Israel" as a flag to wave (and IMU, reestablishing
the Caliphate from the House of Saud) helps, getting the
frothing-at-the-mouth loonies from all Arab states on
your side.

> the kicker--not only does the Saudi-Egypt alliance

Wrong. It actually takes them in the neighborhood of 2 decades. Full Thrust
main book. I think, however, that with Israel out of the picture and with
Oil's importance downgraded by the introduction of commercial fusion power no
one really cares about what happens in the Middle East enough to work up the
energy to intervene effectively.

> > You're assuming a sudden ability to produce junior

You can't import a lot of cadre if you're assuming a
Shi'a/Wahabbi fundamentalist state.  I mean, the whole
premise is "all non-Muslims are evil".  Given the
cultures involved and the history, I don't find it likely. YMMV, of course.
You'll also have a world of difference between, say, some local emir's
personal
thugs and the Sultan's personal thugs.  Long-service
troops recruited from Bedouin will be better than draftees from city Arabs.
There's room for variation, which is why in my DSII organizations there is a
wide variety of troops, each with their own "elites" and
"commando" forces where the best/most reliable (of
that particular bunch) tend to gravitate.

In the armies of several Gulf States (Kuwait is particularly notorious in this
regard) the enlisted scum are mercenaries from Pakistan (and formerly
Palestinians, but Kuwait still hasn't forgiven them for their vocal support of
Hussein) while the officers are all citizens of Kuwait. The senior officers
are all from the tribe that the royal family comes
from--all the officers in some branches.  This is not
a selection system given to the promotion of meritorious officers, but one
which promotes nepotism and considerations of tribal and political loyalty.
This is deeply ingrained into Arabic culture and unlikely to change.
Especially once the really loony junior and midgrade officers hold a coup and
establish a Sultanate. They'll want to be damn sure that no one else can do
the same thing. Ever.