G'day
This is probably too touchy a subject to go poking at, but I've always been
the kinda person to get curious and pick at stuff so I could figure it out...
sorry. If this is going to upset you please add it to your "skip this thread"
file.
John asked:
> How? We couldn't do it to ourselves. The Germans
This brings something to mind you may be able to help me with. A theatre that
I thought may be interesting to play out in the early GZGverse is the
americas - as the upheavals there go about. I know many people do not
consider this aspect of the GZGverse plausible, but this could be a way of
seeing how it could happen (i.e. play it out...). With this in mind, what
extra circumstances do I need to put into the background to increase the
plausibility? Should I have an oil crisis, civil strife, natural resource
problems or a series of destabilising attacks (from rogue bodies or
something)? My knowledge of social issues that can set the scene aren't grand
and I'd appreciate any help you could give me. I had been toying with an
oceania campaign, but apart from clashes with the IC I didn't think it'd
be as interesting in a "what-if" sense.
Thanks
> --- Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:
> plausibility? Should I have an oil crisis, civil
Attacks tend to unite us rather than destabilize us. It would have to be
internal because no can do it to us in the time frame specified.
If Coca-Cola went bankrupt, the society would be in chaos within days.
on 02.5.31 0:21 PM, Beth.Fulton@csiro.au at Beth.Fulton@csiro.au scribbleth:
> This brings something to mind you may be able to help me with. A
G'day,
Edward said:
> If Coca-Cola went bankrupt, the society would be in chaos within days.
And not just in the US;)
John pointed out:
> Attacks tend to unite us rather than destabilize us.
The final straw may need to be internal, but I was wondering if external
factors may set the scene, or help to. I don't know what the climate is like
in the US, but between last September, economic mismanagement and
skyrocketing law-suits in the last 12 months we've lost our major
general insurance company, a major airline, the major doctor's insurer, most
public activities have shut as they can't get affordable liability insurance,
same thing with building insurance. We've seen our economy go from surplus to
deficit and some rather "interesting" political decisions made re: borders,
military structure, protection against biological attacks etc etc. Australia's
not set for a civil war by any means, but the consequences have been very wide
ranging and hit areas you'd have least expected I would've though (but then
what I know about economics probably wouldn't cover the head of a pin carried
by an angel dancing on the head of the original
pin).
Cheers
> At 12:32 31/05/02 +0900, you wrote:
Heating Oil, where does America get the majority of it's heating oil?
I once read a book on Australia and America and their military
relationships [non-fiction, honest ;) ] and in the course of the book
there was a discussion by the author about what would send America to war.
The big answer in his opinion was heating oil, just look at all those American
cities with those large apartment blocks with central heating. How are they
going to be heated in winter? Imagine all those people freezing
and the resulting chaos as they tried to stay warm, it's not as if they can go
out and chop wood.
Sounds pretty destabilizing to me.
Gas... Gas heaters... Or electric.
That being said, there are still lots of oil heaters in the northern sections,
like Mass. They even had a nasty shortage up there a winter or two back.
Caused an aweful lot of problems, but no one revolted...
Californian's are dealing with nasty electrical shortages, but are coping...
To get the loss of a utility (even a basic necessity) to spur on an interior
problem of enough magnitude... Well, for whatever it's worth, a whole lot of
Americans place a lot of faith (however misguided this may be) in their
politicians.
That being said, I'd place more faith in a political topic, or
power-grab/shift higher up, as an underlieing cause, with a shortage of
some essential as the trigger.
Think Vietnam, Equal-Rights, and gas-shortage sized problems... And
then
add in something really nasty. Maybe great-depression or worse.
Even then, I'm not sure if it'd be enough. Maybe a states-rights issue
tossed in.
Oh, and the politicians not being able to find a convenient fall-guy,
like Iraq, Russian, or Osama...
Rand.
> At 03:27 PM 5/31/02 +1000, you wrote:
> How are they going to be heated in winter? Imagine all those people
Beth,
I'd say that the most destabilising influence on the US is the tension between
federal and state powers. So what you need is a federal executive with strong
controversial views,
backed by a good proportion of state governments. And opposed strongly by a
good proportion of the other state governments. Add a spark...
Add in major economic changes - always good for destabilisation.
The US finds itself a major industrial power of another era... Maybe the raw
materials for FTL drives aren't found in North America Or maybe all the raw
materials for Beam Weaponry are controlled by foreign corporations.
Attacks on US assets outside the US would cause it to withdraw from external
responsibilities, and to tend towards a fortress mentality.
Just some random thoughts. Haven't done a sci-fi future history in some
time...
> At 12:32 PM 5/31/02 +0900, you wrote:
I'm not entirely certain that society would *collapse* if this were to
happen...but frankly, I have to wonder if, without Coke, life would even be
worth living.
Beth,
You could start with closing Starbucks and a failure of the cell phone system.
This would put most Americans in an awful tizzy.
Magic <G> implied.
> --- Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:
> With this in mind, what extra circumstances do I need to put into the
What's in canon thus far? President Amy Koslowski gets assassinated, IIRC,
what else?
> On Fri, 31 May 2002 15:09:27 +1000, Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:
> The final straw may need to be internal, but I was wondering if
Well, from a Canadian living in the Deep South, here are some suggestions of
things that will hit a boiling point in the next 50 years or so.
- Oil. This is going to be a world wide issue. There's something like
reserves only until 2030 to 2050. The US may be poised better than any other
country to develop things like fuel cell cars, but the US is also the biggest
user of gasoline (I think Canada is actually higher per capita). What happens
when the oil starts to run out, but interest groups and lobbyists have
successfully stalled the implementation of alternative fuel sources?
- The Environment. Louisiana has a rotten track record for air pollution
and water pollution. It's only "bright spot" is that it lives beside Texas
which has a worse track record. The biggest problem is fresh water. Water runs
downhill, which generally means from the north to the south in North America.
If states or countries (i.e. Canada) start hoarding water upstream, you'll see
major infighting downstream.
- Health Care. The US health care system is awful. The quality of health
care is good... if you can afford it. Most employers offer health insurance,
but often you have to pay for it yourself (the only "benefit" is that the
employer lets you into the health plan). Far too many Americans think they
qualify for Medicaid when they don't, and far too many are going to have to
rely on Medicare. Add in an aging population and this is going to be a big
issue in the next decade or two, bigger than it is now. Okay, not enough to
trigger warfare, so add a new disease. Something slow and dibilitating,
something that would hit a certain large sector of the population. A flu
outbreak wouldn't do it, as the government would probably give out free shots.
It would have to be something really nasty that causes a burden on part of the
country but maybe not on another part. For instance, Louisiana has had a
problem with encephalitis the last couple of years. The place where I live has
had 70 cases in the last year and a couple of deaths. Ratchet that up a bit,
add in a federal government with other pressures that is slow to give, say,
the Southern states (or, if you want CalTex, those two regions) money to fight
a problem like this, and you have a major case of social unrest.
- Racial Tension. I've noticed being down here that the racial issue in
the US is both more and less of a problem than most foreigners see depicted in
TV. This would be too long to discuss, but it wouldn't be difficult to come up
with a scenario where racially motivated violence blossomed into a major
problem.
- Religious Tension. I live in the bible belt. I see what intense
feelings people have with religion. The division of church and state in the
Deep South is mostly just lip service, with the federal government stepping in
when things get too far out of whack. Then you have the deeply held feelings
against cloning and stem cells derived from fetuses (feti?). The abortion
debate has already had bloodshed. You also have fringe religions that have
gone into violence (Waco, anyone?). It wouldn't be difficult to derive a
scenario around religious upheaval, particularly with modern scientific
discoveries.
- Gun Control. Oooo! I said the two-words-that-shall-not-be-stated! This
has the potential of being a major powder keg. Right now violent crime rates
are down in the US. If they were to climb again, you might see cities and
states (mostly in the north, maybe on the west coast) demanding gun control. I
live in the Deep South... they really do mean, "You can take my gun away if
you can pry it from my cold, dead fingers!"
I really don't think that the GZG timeline is realistic. However, if you are
looking for a fictional way of breaking up the US, here are some ideas. It
would probably take more than one at a time to do it. Mix and match two or
three at once, and you could have your fictional reason for breaking up the
continent.
On Fri, 31 May 2002 15:27:58 +1000, Derek Fulton
<derekfulton@bigpond.com> wrote:
> The big answer in his opinion was heating oil, just look at all those
How
> are they going to be heated in winter? Imagine all those people
Never heard of electric heaters? For that matter, folks here in the south are
big on kerosene heaters (yes, I know, more oil). You would simply see people
go get electric heaters.
But electricity has to come from somewhere, and in the US most electricity is
fired from oil turbine generation stations. If need be, the US could turn
around and switch over to coal fire or nuclear, but it would be a slow
process. Hydroelectric plants exist, but water power isn't as prevalent here
as in Canada.
The electricity grid is a major point of failure that could be exploited. Look
at the rolling brown outs in California. Heating only affects the country for
less than half the year. In the summer you have heat as a problem, even in the
north. During the worst heat waves people die in Chicago. I'd hate to imagine
life down here as it was a century ago, what with day time temperatures
peaking past 40 C.
So, add a failure of the power grid to my list of things that could cause
internal upheaval.
> --- Derek Fulton <derekfulton@bigpond.com> wrote:
...
> The big answer in his opinion was heating oil, just
Not a real problem, the cities are controlled by the democrat party, have most
of the crime, have the strictest gun control; this scenario would result in
an short lived inner-city crime wave that would
solve itself in short order.
Quasi-joking,
bye for now,
> --- Donogh McCarthy <donoghmc@hotmail.com> wrote:
...
> Attacks on US assets outside the US would cause it
But then...We might just do exactly the opposite!
Bye for now,
The US has a historical tendency to come out of periods of isolationism with a
massive military commitment. Note both World Wars.
> John Leary wrote:
> --- Donogh McCarthy <donoghmc@hotmail.com> wrote:
> This brings something to mind you may be able to help me with. A
Actually, why not extrapolaite from the current situation. The U.S. continues
to pursue Homeland Defense. The costs drain the U.S. economy both short term
(reducing efficiancy for increased security) and long term (running large
budget deficiets). The terrorist war grinds on with successes and failures on
both sides, but with always increasing cost (ever larger deficiet spending).
Then one day, something completely
un-related
happens. A small rock from space in a very long period orbit collides with
earth, break in three, and impacts in the north east (Baltimore Maryland), mid
west (St. Louis), and south west (Los Angeles). Each fragment is rather small,
only as destructive as the rock that impacted Siberia in the early 1900's.
Note that if that rock had landed a bit further west, St.Petersburg and the
entire surrounding area would have been completely blown away.
The results are a massive disruption in U.S. distribution network, massive
loss of life, (say 5 to 8% of the population), near total property destruction
in affected regions (and loss of life in those regions), and 20% reduction in
the U.S. economy and a 40% redcution in U.S. tax revenues. This means that the
U.S. is unable to pay for both the most neccessary services and service the
natianal debt. This results in the U.S. defaulting on the national deby,
skyrocketing interest rates, runaway inflation, and general economic collapse.
> Allan Goodall <agoodall@att.net> wrote:
> The final straw may need to be internal, but I was wondering if
Well, from a Canadian living in the Deep South, here are some suggestions of
things that will hit a boiling point in the next 50 years or so.
- Oil. This is going to be a world wide issue. There's something like
reserves only until 2030 to 2050. The US may be poised better than any other
country to develop things like fuel cell cars, but the US is also the biggest
user of gasoline (I think Canada is actually higher per capita). What happens
when the oil starts to run out, but interest groups and lobbyists have
successfully stalled the implementation of alternative fuel sources?
I think that when the oil begins to run out (which I seriously doubt will
happen very soon, world estimates of oil reserves keep getting larger), there
will be several solutions waiting in the wings, ready to be implemented. A
more interesting scenario is the one posited by science fiction writer S M
Stirling in his short story "Roachstompers", where the sudden arrival to
market of an alternative energy source (in this case working cold fusion)
destroyed the economies of oil exporting states, including Mexico, and turned
the southern border of the USA into
a free-fire zone.
- The Environment. Louisiana has a rotten track record for air pollution
and water pollution. It's only "bright spot" is that it lives beside Texas
which has a worse track record. The biggest problem is fresh water. Water runs
downhill, which generally means from the north to the south in North America.
If states or countries (i.e. Canada) start hoarding water upstream, you'll see
major infighting downstream.
Heh. Go on, complain about Texas, I'll see you the Houston metroplex and raise
you the entire southern border region, which I happen to live in. The major
pollution is in the Houston area, which occasionally give the Los Angeles area
a run for it's money as the Most Polluted Metro Area In The US (well, so some
of the numbers say, there is much noise from the Houston area that the numbers
are being cooked, as well as the BIG difference in populationbetween the two),
however, just a portion of the Mexican border areas are far mmore polluted
than Houston, and they aren't doing anything about it. At least here we have a
few laws about pollution.
- Health Care. The US health care system is awful. The quality of health
care is good... if you can afford it. Most employers offer health insurance,
but often you have to pay for it yourself (the only "benefit" is that the
employer lets you into the health plan). Far too many Americans think they
qualify for Medicaid when they don't, and far too many are going to have to
rely on Medicare. Add in an aging population and this is going to be a big
issue in the next decade or two, bigger than it is now. Okay, not enough to
trigger warfare, so add a new disease. Something slow and dibilitating,
something that would hit a certain large sector of the population. A flu
outbreak wouldn't do it, as the government would probably give out free shots.
It would have to be something really nasty that causes a burden on part of the
country but maybe not on another part. For instance, Louisiana has had a
problem with encephalitis the last couple of years. The place where I live has
had 70 cases in the last year and a couple of deaths. Ratchet that up a bit,
add in a federal government with other pressures that is slow to give, say,
the Southern states (or, if you want CalTex, those two regions) money to fight
a problem like this, and you have a major case of social unrest.
The health care situation in the US is extremely complicated, but in the
method of paying for it, not in quality. There is a very good reason that
people come to the US to get medical care, there is some of the finest
treatment centers and best medical professionals practice here. At the same
time there is a distinct problem with the high cost of average care in this
country. There are many reasons for it, but what it boils down to is the
simple fact that there is no real free market in medicine in the country,
which is ironic due to free market reform being touted everywhere else in the
world by our government. You have in this country one of the last remaining
Guild systems (the AMA), heavy government interference and subsidies, and
collusion between the providers of medical care and the insurance companies
that pay for it. If it were anything else but the medical field, the whole
system would have been scrapped years ago as totally inefficient and
dangerously corrupt.
- Racial Tension. I've noticed being down here that the racial issue in
the US is both more and less of a problem than most foreigners see depicted in
TV. This would be too long to discuss, but it wouldn't be difficult to come up
with a scenario where racially motivated violence blossomed into a major
problem.
Race is a problem in the US, I've seen it from several sides, as one half of
an interracial couple, as a minority in a mostly monoracial area, as someone
who was racially profiled and stopped by police for "driving while white", and
as a student of history. But the biggest problems seem to be in areas of the
country that are outside the common American culture, i.e. those areas that
are behind the times such as Louisiana, east Texas, sections of the Deep South
and old eastern urban areas. Ironically the area of the country that is known
for praising itself for "tolerence", California, seems to have the most
problems with racial tensions.
- Religious Tension. I live in the bible belt. I see what intense
feelings people have with religion. The division of church and state in the
Deep South is mostly just lip service, with the federal government stepping in
when things get too far out of whack. Then you have the deeply held feelings
against cloning and stem cells derived from fetuses (feti?). The abortion
debate has already had bloodshed. You also have fringe religions that have
gone into violence (Waco, anyone?). It wouldn't be difficult to derive a
scenario around religious upheaval, particularly with modern scientific
discoveries.
The time of Christian Jihad is well over. I've lived most of my life in areas
of deeply held religious belief, I am not religious myself, and have not had
any serious problems with it. Now Louisiana might be a special case, but it
would take a lot more than some theological disagreements to spark a
disintegration of the US. The vast majority of Americans are people who
believe in some sort of religion, but very few are seriously fanatical about
it.
- Gun Control. Oooo! I said the two-words-that-shall-not-be-stated! This
has the potential of being a major powder keg. Right now violent crime rates
are down in the US. If they were to climb again, you might see cities and
states (mostly in the north, maybe on the west coast) demanding gun control. I
live in the Deep South... they really do mean, "You can take my gun away if
you can pry it from my cold, dead fingers!"
As someone who has lived most of his life around hunters and sportsman I can
agree. Away from the major metropolitan areas, in the areas that still hold to
that lifestyle, there would be no way that severe gun control legislation on
the federal level would be enforcable, and it would cause a split in the
country, or rather, complete a split that happened a long time ago. There is
the definate possibility this will happen in the future, and gives me the most
worry for the continued health of the country. It isn't just gun control
though, it is a number of issues the "city folk" and "country folk" just can't
agree on, and with a democratic government, the issue goes to the biggest
number of voters.
I really don't think that the GZG timeline is realistic. However, if you are
looking for a fictional way of breaking up the US, here are some ideas. It
would probably take more than one at a time to do it. Mix and match two or
three at once, and you could have your fictional reason for breaking up the
continent.
Allan Goodall agoodall@hyperbear.com
http://www.hyperbear.com
As far as the realism of the timeline, it's a good bet to say it is HIGHLY
fictional. Be that as it may, you are right in that it would take at least two
or three ideas from your list, and maybe a couple more, to do what the
timeline says.
Putting on my professional hat (a first on this list:)
On Mon, 3 Jun 2002 17:27:20 -0700 (PDT) John Hamill <jwdh71@yahoo.com>
writes: <snip>
> Well, from a Canadian living in the Deep South, here are some
An inside outsider view, cool.
> - Oil. This is going to be a world wide issue. There's something like
> I think that when the oil begins to run out (which I seriously doubt
Agreed.
A more interesting scenario is the one posited by
> science fiction writer S M Stirling in his short story
Very dependent on what the source is and where the resources for *it* come
from and how available they are...
> - The Environment. Louisiana has a rotten track record for air
Okay, this is the one that scares the shit out of me. Resources (short of
massive desalination) are very fixed, alternatives (what alternatives?!) plus
short time to fix problem (how thirsty are you?)
whether long term shortage or drought/pollution stricken people with
guns, all the lovely flash points in spots already armed to the teeth or with
historical nuclear weapon capability.
Water
> runs
Ask Mexico how they like the Colorado River water they (almost don't) get
(after 110% is claimed enroute...)
> Heh. Go on, complain about Texas, I'll see you the Houston metroplex
Hmm, I admit I have not a clue how South America is on that issue... Any
contributors?
> - Health Care. The US health care system is awful. The quality of
Old people don't riot well, yet.
> The health care situation in the US is extremely complicated, but in
True, more and less. as an American Mongrel (you all know the mantra I expect)
who looks very 'white' unlike some of my family I see this from several angles
and it's a tricky thing to predict. I think those areas where race and lack of
opportunity to advance at all is mingled with success of other groups could
turn out to be a (pardon the term) 'tactical' problem in the GZG time line
but, by itself, not a source of disintegration.
> Race is a problem in the US, I've seen it from several sides, as one
Contact me off list, please.
> - Religious Tension. I live in the bible belt. I see what intense
You need to factor in the leadership in charismatic movements and the tendency
of most religions to mainstream to their culture (see Islam, Jihad and secular
Islam pushing the personal war against <whatever they
call sin/evil> as 'true' jihad..)
> The time of Christian Jihad is well over. I've lived most of my life
See main streaming comment above.
> - Gun Control. Oooo! I said the two-words-that-shall-not-be-stated!
Yes, but that is more a tactical then a strategic problem. Although it
provides the means for revolt/disruption/disintegration. Concord
anyone?
> As someone who has lived most of his life around hunters and sportsman
Agricultural support/cost of food. How do you want to pay for your
food?
> I really don't think that the GZG timeline is realistic. However, if
That and a big rash of more than normal stupid. Not impossible, just requires
more "work" to happen.
> Allan Goodall agoodall@hyperbear.com
Gracias,
I'm going to comment on some of John H's stuff, as well as Glenns. Sorry,
John, missed your post somehow!
On Fri, 07 Jun 2002 12:15:05 EDT, Glenn M Wilson <triphibious@juno.com> wrote:
> On Mon, 3 Jun 2002 17:27:20 -0700 (PDT) John Hamill <jwdh71@yahoo.com>
<<snip>>
> An inside outsider view, cool.
That was me that was writing as the inside outsider! *G*
> A more interesting scenario is the one posited by
There's an interesting future history possibility: take the middle east and
throw in an economic collapse due to the deployment of an alternate fuel
source. An unstable region just got _less_ stable...
> The biggest problem is fresh water.
Me too. It's all to likely. Also, there could be fighting (or at least some
nastiness) north of the US border. Canada is the headland of a lot of North
American water, and there's already agreements and pressure to sell water to
the US. What happens if the taps start running dry and Canada starts looking
out for Canadians first?
> however, just a portion of the Mexican border areas are far mmore
The original question was about the US specifically, but it's interesting to
throw in cross border pollution. Texas gets bad pollution from Mexico. Ontario
gets pollution from the Ohio valley...
> Old people don't riot well, yet.
*L* Very true. On the other hand, you have people losing their life savings to
save a loved one. As the population ages and parents start dying from lack of
health care, or younger folks start losing their savings to keep parents
alive, you could see riots.
> The health care situation in the US is extremely complicated, but in
In general, the US has the best health care quality in the world. This, of
course, is not universal. The worst health care facilities in the US are far
worse than those in the worst parts of Canada. I have met a lot of people who
mention one specific Ouachita Parish hospital as not fit to take a dog to. As
far as top end goes, I think every major nation has a hospital that's ranked
as best or almost best in the world. In Toronto, Princess Margaret hospital is
a world leader in cancer research. I understand that there's a hospital in
Sweden that does amazing work with acoustic neuromas.
However, when you talk on average, the US has a consistently high level of
health care.
Paying for it, is another matter... John's comments get to the heart of the
matter.
> True, more and less. as an American Mongrel (you all know the mantra I
I think it could be a source of disintegration if someone tried to make
"political hay" out of it. But, you're right. I mentioned it more as a tension
point. My comment to Beth was that it would probably take two or more tension
points to cause a break up.
> Now Louisiana might be
> few are seriously fanatical about it.
I think the flash point where religion is concerned would be with a clash
between religion and science. Religion, per se, won't do it. Take, for
instance, the whole stem cell debate, or abortion, or human cloning. What, for
instance, would happen if fetal tissue (and only that tissue) held stem cells
that cured a particular type of cancer? This could turn into a very nasty
debate, one that could rip apart a country.
> Yes, but that is more a tactical then a strategic problem. Although it
True, unless someone decides to put gun control into the constitution
(i.e.
take out the... uh... 4th ammendment? I'm not sure which it is). This could
result in a flash point.
> As someone who has lived most of his life around hunters and sportsman
> I can agree. Away from the major metropolitan areas, in the areas that
> still hold to that lifestyle, there would be no way that severe gun
Living in Louisiana, the "Sportsman's Paradise" (apparently sportswomen aren't
as enamoured by it, *grin*) and having _just now_ heard a gun go off
(talk about timing) I can agree with this!
> Agricultural support/cost of food. How do you want to pay for your
I didn't put this down as the small farmer is collapsing in the US. A recent
news clip said that the average age of a farmer in the US is 56, up from 50
just a few years ago (indicating that the number of younger farmers coming
into the business is near zero, if not negative). This means farming will
devolve to huge conglomerates, which already form a huge amount of the
agribusiness.
> That and a big rash of more than normal stupid. Not impossible, just
Oh, I can agree with that, too. Never underestimate the power of stupidity,
however!
> I think the flash point where religion is concerned would be with a
The clash between secular humanism and conservative Christianity has been a
major tension point for years. Imagine a Christian revival taking place
simultaneously with a surge in voodoo. Now imagine gangs of black vodun
adherents in the inner city sacrificing members of, say, a neighboring
Hispanic community (remember the secene from
Predator?). A revived KKK breaking out the sheets and shotguns. And
so forth. Yuck.
> True, unless someone decides to put gun control into the