DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

11 posts ยท Feb 5 1998 to Feb 6 1998

From: Brian Bell <bkb@b...>

Date: Wed, 04 Feb 1998 18:18:21 -0700

Subject: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> In SGII we are introduced to GP ordnance for Artillery. For ships
This got me thinking about how the chits are spread and the odds of drawing a
particular valid chit. Note that Green and Yellow have the exact same number
and distribution of chits.

This is for the drawing of 1 chit. If someone wants to extend these tables to
take into account drawing multiple chits, please do so.

Number of Chits:
      G/Y     Red     G&Y     G/Y&R   All
T:    20      50      40      70      90  (110 including special)
0:     3       5       6       8      11
1:    10      20      20      30      40
2:     7      15      14      22      29
3:     5      10      10      15      20
Boom: 5 Firer: 2 Targeting: 5 Mobility: 7

Odds of drawing a specific chit:
 %    G/Y     Red     G&Y     G/Y&R   All
T:    18.2    45.5    36.4    63.6    81.8
0:    02.7    02.7    05.5    07.3    10.0
1:    09.0    18.2    18.2    27.3    36.4
2:    06.4    13.6    12.7    20.0    31.8
3:    04.5    09.0    09.0    13.6    18.2
Boom: 04.5% Firer: 01.8% Targeting: 04.5% Mobility: 06.4%

From: Mikko Kurki-Suonio <maxxon@s...>

Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 08:05:50 +0200 (EET)

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Wed, 4 Feb 1998, Brian Bell wrote:

> This is for the drawing of 1 chit. If someone wants to extend these

I tried to do that. If you account for all possible "valid" combinations, the
problem is that without fudging there are simply too many
combinations -- you'd be rolling d10000000 or something.

If you make a separate table for each valid combination, it might be
manageable -- I just never got that far into it. But I suspect it might
still be d10000 or so.

Another choice is to fudge a bit, and group together the combinations with
only marginal probability.

From: Tony Christney <tchristney@t...>

Date: Wed, 4 Feb 1998 23:57:12 -0800

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Thu, 5 Feb 1998, Mikko Kurki-Suonio wrote:

> On Wed, 4 Feb 1998, Brian Bell wrote:
combinations,
> the problem is that without fudging there are simply too many

I did this a relatively simple way a while back (more than a year).
The way I handled it was to use a combination of a D10(0-9) and a D12.
The D12 counted as the "tens" (I think you have to ignore 12s). I had a chart
to cross reference the die roll with the corresponding damage chit.

To work out higher class weapon hits, you would use five sets of color
coded dice, re-rolling the very very rare duplicates (if you want to
recreate the odds _exactly_). If you aren't worried about duplicates,
(the difference is negligible) then one set of dice is fine.

The problem is that when I made the chart up, I had no opponents, and the
chart got lost in the pile of papers from school;). I suppose I could look for
it, but it's probably easier to start from scratch.
I did post it to the space-marine mailing list (to which I unsubscribed
after I got involved with NetEpic...). Perhaps someone on this list who used
to be on that list still has it handy? Heck, maybe they even used it...

> --

From: Mikko Kurki-Suonio <maxxon@s...>

Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 12:46:04 +0200 (EET)

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Wed, 4 Feb 1998, Tony Christney wrote:

> I did this a relatively simple way a while back (more than a year).

That's easy. A single chit draw fits nicely on a d100 table.

> To work out higher class weapon hits, you would use five sets of color

Erm, that's in effect rolling X times on the 1 chit table, something I
tried to avoid. IMHO, the whole point of rolling dice and table-lookup
is that it has to be faster than picking chits. I don't find rolling 10
different colored d10's very convenient (in effect 1d10000000000).

> The problem is that when I made the chart up, I had no opponents, and

I have the chart on my web pages, it's at
http://www.swob.dna.fi/mini/gzg/
I think.

From: George,Eugene M <Eugene.M.George@k...>

Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 11:50:08 -0800

Subject: RE: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

I think that may be the table I kludged up, but hey, the math is the same.

Gene

> ----------

From: Tony Christney <tchristney@t...>

Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 12:39:59 -0800

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Wed, 4 Feb 1998, Tony Christney wrote:

Not quite, I think that there are ~119(ie. more than 100) different chits.
Hence the D12-D10 combination.

> To work out higher class weapon hits, you would use five sets of

Again, not exactly my intention. You would only have, at most, five
different colors. Each _color_ corresponds to a chit draw. Basically
the dice work in tandem. The major speed increase comes from the fact that you
can "draw" all of the required chits at the same time with a single handful of
dice. Also, it's not the same as rolling X times on the one chit table. Chit
draws are not statistically independent, whereas a d10000000000 is
statistically independent.

Finally, there is another advantage, losing one or more chits changes the
odds. You can't lose one facet of a die;)

Cheers, Tony.

> --

From: Tony Christney <tchristney@t...>

Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 12:55:20 -0800

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Thu, 5 Feb 1998, Mikko Kurki-Suonio wrote:

> The problem is that when I made the chart up, I had no opponents, and

Nope, my chart is _very_ different. I will try to dig it up and post it
for all to see...

> --

From: Thomas Barclay <Thomas.Barclay@s...>

Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 16:59:36 -0500

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> Finally, there is another advantage, losing one or more chits

Speak for yourself Tony. I can personally attest that in some scenarios I've
participated in, I was quite positive I'd lost several facets (the high value
ones) off my dice......

(grin)

T.
/************************************************

From: Mikko Kurki-Suonio <maxxon@s...>

Date: Fri, 6 Feb 1998 10:05:40 +0200 (EET)

Subject: RE: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Thu, 5 Feb 1998, George,Eugene M wrote:

> I think that may be the table I kludged up, but hey, the math is the

It may very well be. I didn't make up that table, I just translated it
into HTML (and managed to lose the credits in process -- I'm really
sorry about that). If yours was an Excel table posted on this list or
somewhere on the web, I'll credit it to you.

From: Mikko Kurki-Suonio <maxxon@s...>

Date: Fri, 6 Feb 1998 10:13:54 +0200 (EET)

Subject: Re: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

> On Thu, 5 Feb 1998, Tony Christney wrote:

> Not quite, I think that there are ~119(ie. more than 100) different

I started work from someone else's (Eugene's?) table with the assumption

that it was correct, so you may be right there. In any case, it's a minor
difference.

Though I do think the chits were on a separate punch-out sheet, so an
even number is more likely.

> Again, not exactly my intention. You would only have, at most, five

So it's 5 d10's and 5 d12's -- not a major difference, IMHO.

> Each _color_ corresponds to a chit draw. Basically

As you said, you can reroll the doubles, but even if you don't, it's almost
the same...

> Finally, there is another advantage, losing one or more chits

That is true... maybe I'll resume work on it and try to fit the results into a
d30 x d30 table (I bought a bunch of d30's from a closeout sale
;-)
I think d100 x d100 is the maximum reasonable...

From: George,Eugene M <Eugene.M.George@k...>

Date: Fri, 6 Feb 1998 12:00:52 -0800

Subject: RE: DS2 Chit Probabillity (was:DSII: Artillery)

Yeah it's mine. No worries, the credit really goes to GZG, I just regurgitated
the info.

Gene