Beth says:
I think if any nation should feel unjustly done by its the ESU which sits
amongst, or below, the smaller nations - I guess the grit and "I'll
stand here until I'm damn well dead" Russkies I think off (OK I play
Napoleonics) isn't something that goes with the navy?
I reply:
No, they all stood there and died thus (in Darwin's world) eliminating that
set of traits from the breed.
Seroiusly, the critique probably extends in a generalized sense to the ESU.
There are probably ships populated with those kind of Russian stoics. But the
ship may be poorly maintained due to a poorer overall economy. The crew may be
a little poorer, despite attitude or experience, due to a lack of formal
training (though in my view, the vast number of actions the ESU fight would
probably leave a good core of excellent soldiers with "guns hot"
experience - worked for the Soviets in WW2). And the centrally directed
nature of their geopolitics is bound to influence their military -
probably make them more likely to make cautious decisions and to call upstairs
for directives than to strike out boldly on their own initiative. That
behaviour too probably got bred out by the modern ESU equivalent of the NKVD
or KGB.
G'day Tom,
As usual I've probably got the wrong end of a very pointy stick here, but...
if communists (and thus ESU) by extension don't have good armed forces becuase
they're poor, poorly trained, can't think for themselves how come the cold war
lasted so long? Shouldn't they have got trounced damn smart?
In my warped opinion I think the ESU ships maybe spartan and may not have
the latest wizz-bang consoles of the FSE?UN?NAC etc etc, but I do think
that they'd have crews that were just as good (given they've been through 3
solar wars). I just have this feeling that if the ESU was to survive that far
then a) it wouldn't necessarily actually be very communist anymore or b)
they'd figured out a better way to make it work, either way I just figured
you'd end up with something a bit more polished.
Based on the results of the poll (for all its grand sample size), the
difference in power staus obviously comes down to resource base not level
of technology/training/integration etc as there was no clear distinction
in
ranking between the major/minor powers.
Better get back to my compile too.
Cheers
Beth
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2000 15:50:50 +1000
From: Beth Fulton <beth.fulton@marine.csiro.au>
Subject: Re: Beth's Poll
G'day Tom,
** G'day Beth.
As usual I've probably got the wrong end of a very pointy stick here, but...
if communists (and thus ESU) by extension don't have good armed forces becuase
they're poor, poorly trained, can't think for themselves how come the cold war
lasted so long? Shouldn't they have got trounced damn smart?
** Hmmm. See my other post about quantity having a quality all its own. The
Soviets had superior numbers (like 2 to 5x in most classes of stuff) to the
NATO guys, and a way to think of it would be that, if we awarded NATO 40% of
its force at Tech 5 (arbitrary number), 40% at Tech 4, and 20% at Tech
3,
the Soviets may have had 10% Tech 5, 25% Tech 4, 50% Tech 3, 15% Tech 2. So
they had their few "good" assets cushioned by lots of expendables. That's
quite a viable strategy. They were backward, but they knew how to compensate
for that defficiency.
In my warped opinion I think the ESU ships maybe spartan and may not have
the latest wizz-bang consoles of the FSE?UN?NAC etc etc, but I do think
that they'd have crews that were just as good (given they've been through 3
solar wars).
** If you recall my ratings of the ESU, I gave them high marks for experience.
They did a LOT of fighting. But the problem is I suspect they also purge
dissidents, which tends to take out some good officers and junior
leaders - Ask Stalin or the Polish Army of days gone by.
I just have this feeling that if the ESU was to survive that far then a) it
wouldn't necessarily actually be very communist anymore or b) they'd figured
out a better way to make it work, either way I just figured you'd end up with
something a bit more polished.
** Communism is just a name for what they have - a centrally planned and
controlled government. It isn't idealistic communism. And I don't see it
likely that China (which took over Russia) will ever entirely let go of
central planning. They're very traditionalist and almost reactionary (the
leadership specifically). They'll allow some cracks around the edges, but I
think it'll be a while till capitalism and democracy crack the ESU.
** If you have numbers, or experience, that can often substitute for other
kinds of quality. I think people (others) have underrated the effects of all
the fighting on the ESU - it would have (I believe) have produced an
experienced cadre for their officer corps. Now purges may weaken this, but it
isn't going to erase such broad spectrum combat experience. And a willingness
to expend people and cheap ships in a fight if necessary to beat a higher
tech, better quality force is probably the only option and might be affordable
if you have people and your ships don't cost too much to build.
Based on the results of the poll (for all its grand sample size), the
difference in power staus obviously comes down to resource base not level
of technology/training/integration etc as there was no clear distinction
in
ranking between the major/minor powers.
** Well I'd agree that resource base has a lot to do with it. But imagine you
didn't have a lot of granularity to your survey... let's say I have a
smaller force - I have to pick the guys that are in it, and they HAVE to
be good, so the whole force looks good if I'm resource and man shy. OTOH, the
big boy with lots of cash and guys, he doesn't have the need to have his guys
as great on a per guy basis, and he's got such a huge force that he can't
afford it even with more resources, and by having a big force, instead of just
having the top 1% in his navy, he has the top 5% and that's a big difference
in quality. Anyway, there's also probably an argument that a nation would not
be a major power if it had not found a way to compensate. You'll note I don't
suggest the ESU is 3rd rate. If you asked if it had a bigger force than anyone
else, I'd say yes so as to result in a balance with the quality of the NAC for
example.
Better get back to my compile too.
** ditto again.
Cheers